Sunday afternoon’s showdown between the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers (11-6) and the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), champions of the NFC East, has a chance to ‘to be the most exciting game of the first round of the NFL playoffs. .
These two teams met on track in Brazil in Week 1, a matchup the Eagles survived with a 34-29 victory. The two appeared to be evenly matched early in the season, and there’s a case to be made that that’s still the case heading into the playoffs. Both teams’ starting quarterbacks – Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love (elbow) and Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts (head) – suffered season-ending injuries, but they will both be in uniform on Sunday afternoon. Both have two of the best running backs in football after signing them in free agency: Eagles NFL champion Saquon Barkley and Packers Pro Bowler Josh Jacobs. Both have top 10 defenses – the Packers are the sixth highest scoring defense in the NFL (19.9 points per game allowed) and the Eagles are the second highest scoring defense in the NFL (17.8 points per game allowed ).
With such a balanced game, it’s quite possible the Packers pull a rabbit out of their hat and win on the road at an incredibly hostile Lincoln Financial Field. The seventh seeds are just 1-7 in the first round of the playoffs since the field expanded to include them in 2020, but the only win was this team’s 48-32 win of the Packers against the second-seeded Dallas Cowboys in the last playoffs. It was a game where Green Bay, the NFL’s youngest team in 2023, took a 27-0 lead. The Packers remain the youngest team in the NFL in 2024, but here’s how they can pull off a win against the NFC’s No. 2 seed, the NFC East champion for the second year in a row.
Eagles vs Packers where to watch
Date: Sunday January 12 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
Channel: Fox | Flow: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports app
Sports betting odds: Eagles -5, O/U 45.5
3. Jordan Love and head coach Matt LaFleur take advantage of the Eagles’ aggression with a heavy dose of playmaking
Play action has long been a staple of Shanahan’s offense, but Packers disciple and head coach Matt LaFleur’s 2024 Green Bay offense has been off to a start in that department. He’s run on just 13.7 percent of Green Bay’s offensive plays this season, which ranks 19th in the NFL. A season ago, his 15.3 percent rate was ninth-highest in the NFL. Just 46.8% of their snaps under center in 2024 are play action, tied for ninth lowest in the league. Since Jordan Love became the Packers’ starting quarterback in 2023, his passer rating of 113.6 on play action is seventh best in the entire league while his yards per pass attempt is 10.1 on play action throws are 10th best in the league in that span. His 21.3% explosive completion rate on play-action passes since 2023 is 11th best in the NFL.
In Week 1, the Eagles blitzed Love on 32.4 percent of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia’s third-highest blitz rate against any team this season. On this day, Love was not sacked against their blitz and completed 6 of 12 passes for 38 yards and a touchdown. Using play-action against an aggressive game plan could pay dividends for Green Bay. Even when not blitzing, the Eagles have one of the best defensive fronts with former Georgia Bulldogs maulers Jordan Davis (6’6, 336 pounds) and Jalen Carter (6’3, 314 pounds) at medium. However, Packers left guard Elgton Jenkins had the NFL’s best Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade (83.1) among guards this season, and Green Bay right tackle Zach Tom recorded PFF’s fourth-best offensive rating (87.6) among offensive tackles this season. They can lessen the impact of the Eagles’ defensive front.
Regularly targeting wide receiver Jayden Reed out of the slot could also be something the Packers could exploit: Love completed three of five throws to Reed out of the slot for 129 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Eagles. It’s worth noting that slot corner Avonte Maddox outshot rookie second-round pick Cooper DeJean 52-5 in Week 1, and DeJean has now taken control at that spot.
2. Josh Jacobs and Green Bay playing turnover-free football allow underdogs to win time of possession battle
What’s the best way to stop an explosive Eagles offense with two Pro Bowl-caliber receivers, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, as well as NFL champion running back Saquon Barkley? Play a clean game and keep them off the field. Love has addressed his ball security issues, having made seven straight starts without a pick – the longest active streak in the league by a quarterback. Another key to staying on the field is having a good running game, which the Packers have with Josh Jacobs. His 1,336 rushing yards are sixth in the NFL, and his 15 rushing touchdowns are fourth in the league.
His eight-game touchdown streak is the longest active streak in the NFL, and it is tied for the longest such streak in Packers history, including the playoffs, alongside the All-Pro receiver Davante Adams in 2020. Jacobs can bludgeon a defense early, which could allow Love and his receivers to create an explosive play in the second half of games.
1. Opportunistic Packers defense led by Xavier McKinney, Edgerrin Cooper forces turnovers, don’t break against Saquon Barkley
This season, the Packers have forced 31 putbacks, the fourth-most in the entire NFL. Safety Xavier McKinney, who earned a 2024 first-team All-Pro nod in his first season in Green Bay, co-led the NFL with nine takeaways this season, eight interceptions and one fumble recovered. He’s always hiding, waiting to pounce on a takeaway.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts averaged an NFL-high 9.9 yards per pass attempt against man coverage this season, but that number fell to 7.6 yards per pass attempt facing in zone coverage for a below-average rank of 19th. The Packers ran zone on 75.7 percent of their defensive snaps this season, the eighth-highest rate in the league, and their passer rating when using zone of 87.4 was the 13th most lowest allowed in the league in 2024. Green Bay also generated a quarterback. pressure on 33.1% of opponents’ backs against the zone, the 13th best rate in the NFL. If the Packers can come home against Hurts or just force him to hold the ball longer and have to deal with a lot in zone coverage after not playing a game in three weeks because of a concussion, McKinney and Co. could make some plays with the ball in the air.
Hurts also likes to rush on third down: His 13.3% scramble rate on dropbacks on third down was the highest in the NFL this season. He did it because it worked well: He converted his 17 third-down carries into 12 first downs. However, Green Bay has now increased its athleticism at its inside linebacker spot with Packers rookie second-round linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. He’s PFF’s fourth-highest rated linebacker in the entire NFL this season (84.0 PFF defensive rating), but the Eagles only saw him for 10 defensive snaps in their Week 1 matchup. that he did not benefit from consistent playing time, at least 30 defensive snaps per game, until Week 6, he finished 2024 with 12 tackles for loss, the most 19th in the entire league.
The same goes for Packers fourth-round rookie safety Evan Williams, who did not receive regular playing time until Week 5. Green Bay was 5-1 in his six starts and a perfect 7-0 when he played at least 30 defenses, according to TruMedia. They also won all 10 of his games in which he recorded at least one tackle. With these two youngsters providing more power to the Packers’ defense, Green Bay finished the year ranked seventh in the NFL’s run defense (99.4 rushing yards per game allowed).
A heavier dose of playmaking, winning the possession battle and a more explosive Packers defense capitalizing on a version of Hurts who hasn’t played football in three weeks due to a concussion are their three keys to victory . Reaching all those marks could allow Green Bay to become the third team to win the Wild Card round on the road in consecutive seasons, joining the 2008-2010 Baltimore Ravens and the 2009-2010 New York Jets, according to CBS Sports Research.
