• What: Michigan State vs. Illinois
• When: Sunday noon
• Or: Breslin Center
• Television/Radio: CBS Radio/Spartan Sports Network, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 196 (MSU broadcast), 197 (Illinois broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 15-2 overall, 6-0 in the Big Ten and is ranked No. 12 in the Coaches’ Poll and the Associated Press Poll, and No. 14 via the analytics site college basketball Kenpom.com. Illinois is 13-4 overall, 5-2 in the Big Ten and is ranked No. 19 in the AP poll and 20 by Coaches, unranked by major polls, while being ranked No. 8 by Kenpom.
• Projected betting line: MSU -2 (via Kenpom prediction, this is how Vegas sets its line these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 722-297 in his 30th season as head coach, all with the Spartans. Illinois — Brad Underwood is 265-119 in his 12th season as an NCAA head coach, including 156-92 in his eighth season with the Illini.
• Series: MSU leads 65-64 all-time, with each team winning on its home court last season.
Projected compositions
MSU
C (10) Szymón Zapala (7-0) 5.8
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.9
L (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 14.2
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.5
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.9
Illinois
C (13) Tomislav Ivisic (7-1) 13.0
F (3) Ben Humrichous (6-9) 9.2
F (22) Tre White (6-7) 10.9
L (4) Kylan Boswell (6-2) 11.8
L (32) Kasparas Jakucionis (6-6) 16.7
• MSU update: The Spartans have won 10 straight games for the first time in six seasons following Wednesday’s 90-85 victory over Penn State. They have not, however, beaten an opponent of Illinois’ caliber by any measure or poll this season. And MSU’s only two games against teams ranked as high as Illinois or as highly ranked by Kenpom — Memphis and Kansas — represent just two Spartans losses. Entering the weekend, MSU sits alone atop the Big Ten standings at 6-0, as the league’s only undefeated team in conference play, just ahead of Purdue (6-1), Michigan (5-1), Illinois (5-2), Oregon (4-2) and Wisconsin (4-2). That’s probably the extent of the Big Ten contenders. Of those teams, MSU plays Illinois and Michigan twice – home and away – and all others once, with all three of those games at the Breslin Center.
MORE: Couch: Frankie Fidler is starting to realize he can play a big role in MSU’s victory
• Illinois Update: The Illini are coming off a 94-69 victory at Indiana on Tuesday, which followed a somewhat surprising home loss to USC. That loss, however, occurred without star freshman guard and leading scorer Kasparas Jakucionis, a top-five pick in this summer’s NBA draft, who missed that game and the one that preceded it due to a forearm injury suffered in Washington. He returned against Indiana on Tuesday and scored 21 points, made three 3s and dished out five assists. This is essentially a new Illinois team from a year ago, featuring two foreigners, Jakucionis, from Lithuania, and 7-foot-1 freshman center Tomislav Ivisic, from Croatia, both with professional experience in Europe. Tom Izzo suggested that having these two Europeans, lacking American player rights, at the heart of the Illinois team may have helped create a culture that allowed for an entirely new team built by NIL to exist cohesively and in harmony, while most teams with high payroll and high turnover have struggled. Brad Underwood’s background might also help. His years coaching at the top of the junior college ranks — at Dodge City and Daytona Beach — would have been good experience to make a roster again every year.
• Correspondence analysis: Kasparas Jakucionis is a special talent. There’s some Steph Curry to his game. His step-back 3 rebound stands out at the college level and is one of the reasons he’s projected as a high NBA draft pick. We don’t see players making this kind of 3 with his effectiveness very often. It can also create from the drive. Izzo MSU will start different players and watch him. That could start with Jaden Akins, who can be an elite defender and will want to prove it against someone like Jakucionis, with Jeremy Fears Jr. or Tre Holloman over another dangerous guard in Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell. Illinois’ size on the wing, starting with Tre White, could be a challenge for MSU’s smaller three-guard lineups.
Jakucionis is one of six Illinois players with 17 made 3s or more on the season, although the Illini connect on only 33% of their 3s as a team, including 31.8% in games. conference. MSU, for all its perceived outside shooting struggles, makes 34.8 percent of its 3s in Big Ten games. Where the Illini have been elite is at the other end of the court and on the glass. They’ve held opponents to 27.8 percent on 3-point attempts and their defensive efficiency is in the top 10, according to Kenpom. MSU is No. 14 in this category. Both are also top rebounding teams, although Illinois has been a bit stronger statistically. It starts with big man Tomislav Ivisic. Ben Humrichous is a 4-man, a transfer from Evansville who can’t be left alone on the perimeter and has made 37 of 99 3s this season.
• Prediction: Pound for pound, Illinois is the most talented team in the Big Ten. But MSU, at its best, played as well as anyone in the league and showed through its depth and variety that it had a counter for almost every game. The Spartans are a different team now than they were in Atlanta or Maui. This is the first time THIS MSU team has faced an opponent of this caliber. Home games don’t represent the whole truth, but this will be an eye-opening game for the Spartans.
• Do it: MSU 77, Illinois 74
MORE: Couch: Jase Richardson’s journey from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball breakthrough
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article was originally published in the Lansing State Journal: MSU vs. Illinois Basketball: Predictions, Preview, TV, Betting Line
