that of Liverpool Mohamed Salah And Virgil van Dijkand that of Manchester City Kevin De Bruyne are three of the biggest stars of the Premier League era. They have each helped their team win all of the club’s top honors and are some future members of the Premier League Hall of Fame. However, they are all thirty-somethings entering the last six months of their contract.
Salah (32) and Van Dijk (33) are yet to secure new contracts at Anfield, and De Bruyne (33) is still waiting to find out if he has a future at the Etihad beyond the FIFA Club World Cup next summer. Son Heung-Min (32) is also entering the final six months of his contract at Tottenham Hotspur, and many other players in their 30s are heading into 2025 with uncertainty over whether they will be retained or released by their Premier League. club at the end of the season.
But while Harry Maguire (31) and Christian Eriksen (32) are unlikely to be offered new contracts at Manchester United, and with Jorginho (32) and Thomas Partey (31) Each in a similar situation to Arsenal, Liverpool and City each have important – and complex – decisions to make regarding Salah, Van Dijk and De Bruyne.
Salah and Van Dijk have both been crucial figures for Arne Slot’s Liverpool side this season, helping the team to the top of the Premier League and Champions League tables, while De Bruyne was this week named in the FIFPRO Men’s World XI for 2024. Yet the key factor in deciding the future of all the players named above is not their current performance, but their contribution in 18 months or two years. Will they still be a high-performing asset or an aging and expensive liability?
“There are so many factors at play when deciding whether a player in his 30s deserves a new contract,” a former Premier League sporting director told ESPN. “How much depth do you have in this area of the team, can you find a younger and equally reliable replacement on the market, if you release a high performing player now and take a hit for a year while allowing for a younger player to settle in and become the long-term backup? Can the player justify a big salary in 2-3 years?
“We must also take into account the physical fitness of the player without a contract. How many matches has he missed, what injuries has he suffered, does he train regularly? One thing is certain, in every club, data analysts will know exactly what the player’s trajectory is in terms of performance data and this applies to both training and matches. People outside the club will not see this detail. , but if a player no longer trains every day or has had to deal with injuries, it will all be there in the data and if their trajectory is already on a downward curve, the writing is on the wall, no matter who they are.
For Salah, Van Dijk and De Bruyne, the challenges of each contract are different.
Salah turns 33 next June and is in top form for Liverpool. He is co-leader of the Premier League goalscoring charts with 13 goals and only Bukayo Saka (10) has recorded more assists this season than Salah’s eight. He has only missed 23 games through injury since signing from Liverpool in July 2017, although 12 of those came last season due to two separate muscle injuries, which could be a problem that urges caution in Liverpool’s approach. Were these injuries the first sign of a downward trajectory? His form this season doesn’t suggest that, but only the data will show that for sure.
Meanwhile, Van Dijk is a year older than Salah and has missed 77 games through injury since joining Liverpool from Southampton in January 2018. However, since recovering from A cruciate ligament injury forced him to miss virtually the entire 2020-21 season, the Dutch defender has only missed nine matches due to injury in three and a half seasons, so his fitness is impressive.
De Bruyne, who signed for City in 2015, has however missed 51 matches for club and country (Belgium) since the start of the 2023-24 season, with 170 days lost due to hamstring problems according to Transfermarkt. His recent fitness record will be a major concern for those tasked with considering his future at City, and with his 34th birthday approaching next June, it seems unlikely at this stage that he will be offered anything other than a one-year extension under reduced conditions.
Getting the timing right is also extremely important to know when a club is letting a player go. Manchester United released Raphaël Varanethen aged 31, at the end of last season due to the former Real Madrid defender missing 61 games through injury since joining the club in 2021. Concerns over Varane’s fitness were then confirmed when the French World Cup winner suffered a career-ending knee injury. injury during his first appearance for new club Como.
Liberated city Ilkay Gundoganthen aged 32, after the midfielder led the team to a hat-trick of glory in 2022-23. The former Germany international returned to the Etihad this summer after a year at Barcelona, but City’s initial decision to release him in 2023 appears far more sensible than their decision to re-sign him. Gündogan, now 34, is a shadow of his former self with Pep Guardiola’s team this season.
0:59
Marcotti: Liverpool are convinced Mohamed Salah will stay
Gab Marcotti believes Liverpool are increasingly convinced that Mohamed Salah will sign a new contract with the club.
But not every player in their early 30s experiences the start of their decline. Cristiano Ronaldo (39) and Lionel Messi (37) are the ultimate proof, while Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ryan Giggs played at the highest level well into their forties. Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski36, is scoring at a rate of 0.78 goals per game and has played 93.7% of his team’s minutes after turning 33, up from 0.79 and 93.6% all previous years.
Conversely, Wayne Rooney and Fernando Torres saw their careers decline sharply after reaching 30, while Liverpool did not live to regret parting with a 30-year-old player. Sadio Mané to Bayern Munich in 2022 or release the 32-year-old Roberto Firmino at the end of last season.
The data will guide clubs towards their final decision, but there may be compromises to suit both parties.
“These issues can be resolved with pragmatism on both sides,” the former sporting director said. “A player and his agent will know that they will not get Premier League wages in Spain, Italy or Germany, so the only lucrative options are Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey.
“Some players might decide to take a big pay cut and a shorter contract to maintain their current lifestyle and keep their family settled rather than seeking a final payday. And if a club decides it cannot replace a 32 or 33 year old player with a ready signing, they could also seek common ground with the player. The last thing a club wants is to end up with a 35 year old player injured and. with a huge salary.
This is the problem facing every big club with an aging star. They must either trust them to continue to deliver on their promises, or callously decide that the time has come to move them on.
