Michigan State basketball in Michigan Tipoff: inside the match and a prediction

• What: Michigan State in Michigan

• When: 8 p.m. Friday

• Or: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor

• TV / Radio: Radio Fox / Spartan Sports Network, including Wjim 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Siriusxm ch. 195 (Msu Broadcast), 84 (Michigan Broadcast)

• Records / rankings: MSU has a file of 21-5 in total, 12-3 in Big Ten and ranked n ° 13 in the coach survey, n ° 14 of the Associated Press survey, and is n ° 14 in accordance with the site of Kenpom.com and No. 19 university basketball analysis in the NCAA net ranking. Michigan has a 20-5 file in total, 12-2 in the Big Ten and ranked n ° 12 in the coaches and the AP survey. Wolverines are n ° 19 nationally, by Kenpom and 17 in the net ranking.

• Projected Paris line: Michigan -2 (via the projection of Kenpom)

• Coaches: Michigan state -Tom Izzo has 728-300 in his 30th season as a chief coach, all with the Spartans. Michigan – Dusty May is 146-74 in her seventh season as a chief coach. This is his first season in Michigan after six seasons in Florida Atlantic.

• Series: Michigan leads 104-90 all time. MSU won the two meetings last season. They will compete a second time this season on March 9 at Breslin Center this season.

Projected lines

Msu

C (10) Szymon Lights (7-0) 5.2

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.2

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.1

G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 10.4

PG (1) Jeremy fears Jr. (6-2) 7.0

Michigan

F (50) Vladislav Goldin (7-1) 15.7

F (1) Danny Wolf (7-1) 12.9

G (4) Nimari Burnett (6-5) 10.1

G (15) Rubin Jones (6-5) 3.6

G (3) Three Donaldson (6-3) 12.7

• MSU update: The Spartans found their place, winning in Illinois, then at home against Purdue to set up this opportunity on Friday evening in Michigan on Friday evening, where a victory would mean that MSU would be alone in the first place, half a match on the Wolverines. Spartans lead the Big Ten in many categories in the conference game, by Kenpom: defensive efficiency, percentage of offensive rebounds, 3 -point defense, percentage of free throws, blocks and assists by goals on the ground. Their weakness remains at 3 shooting points, where they are 32% in conference matches. MSU only took 12 and 13 3 points, respectively, in their last two victories, winning five in each match, after reaching 4 for 23 in the defeat against Indiana.

MORE: Couch: 3 quick sockets on the 75-66 victory of Michigan State against Purdue

• Michigan update: The Wolverines won six consecutive games, all by four points or less, more recently 86-83 in Ohio State on Sunday. They placed themselves in an ideal place to win the Big Ten, if they can beat the Spartans on Friday evening and put two games in the loss column in the rest of the league. Dusty can assemble a list that works well together – a couple of remains in the rotation of Wing Nimari Burnett and the 4 -Man Will Tschetter reserve, and six transfers, including the 7 -foot tandem by Danny Wolf (Yale) and Vladislov Goldin (Florida Atlantic), with the guards Tre Donaldson (Auburn) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio State). Donaldson is technically the leader of the Wolverines, although Michigan manages a large part of its offense through Wolf Up Top in the action of the ball screen.

• Key matchage: Danny Wolf could be the best discovery and evaluation of the transfer portal in the country. The idea of ​​playing two 7 feet next to the other only works if one of them can create far from the edge. Wolf is a point before, which was great to descend and work on ball screens – often with Vladislov Goldin. He and Goldin actually improve. Wolf’s ability to make dribble outdoor shots – he is 26 years old for 72 in the season on 3S (36%) – obliges opponents to keep it up. The big question, as with any team, is how MSU manages Wolf and Goldin in ball screens and which keeps Wolf, when Goldin is occupying Carson Cooper or Szymon Zapala. There are four different options for MSU to keep Wolf when the two feet are in the game – Jaxon Kohler, Xavier Booker, Frankie Fidler and Coen Carr. Kohler will start on Wolf. In terms of size, rebound and having an offensive game that could remove Wolf from the basket, Kohler could be the best game. Booker could also have one of those days when he is engaged and his athletic skills and skills are a manufacturer difference.

The key is to make the wolf as uncomfortable as possible at both ends. MSU should not simply give in to the match based solely on what makes the most defensively. If Coen Carr can harass Wolf enough, then maybe play Carr at Power Forward for a section so that Wolf takes care of him in transition and at the other end. Ditto to Fidler, which would distance the wolf from the defensively basket. My feeling, however, is that MSU will remain mainly large, if the Spartans can be disagreed. This is one of those games where MSU could have to modify its plan according to what works and what does not work. The coach staff were quite good this season. It is also an MSU defense that can change and is designed to help in the shortcomings, so it is more nuanced than which guy is on Wolf. But I think MSU has matches that could be painful to defend for Wolf.

• How Msu wins: Michigan has some weaknesses – above all, they return the ball more than anyone in Big Ten and does not force many turnover themselves. MSU’s superpower is no individual player. It is his collective momentum. Spartans generally find a section where they start to return a team and go out on the break, Coen Carr begins to catch alley-oops and, above all, the Spartans used these stretches to change the game and keep control. If they can ask Danny Wolf and Donaldson to return it and play enough from this game in transition, they will be in good shape. The rest of their offense often opens when this happens.

Michigan is not so good either on defensive glass, which also plays in one of MSU’s forces. The percentage of Spartans offensive rebound by 36.8%, by Kenpom, leads the Big Ten in conference matches. We have seen what second chance opportunities can do for this MSU team. If the Spartans create reversals that lead to transitional buckets – as they have done against Purdue – and are successful on offensive glass – as in Illinois – they will probably win this game, as long as they will make a 3 points or two.

• How Michigan wins: It starts with Michigan taking care of basketball. MSU can stagnate with its half-terrain offense when there are no possibilities to find rhythm in transition. If wolverines can bait Spartans in outdoor shots – taking more than 15 3s is not the game that MSU wants to play – and Spartans have trouble doing them, as they often do, then Michigan will probably play to the front. Wolverines are also a fairly good shooting team outside and, while Msu has withdrawn this from most of them, dealing with Danny Wolf and Vladislov Goldin will attract the attention of Msu that Msu will probably not be able to lock the Donaldson and Nimari Burnett in the same way. This is probably a tight game. Michigan has not played a home game decided by more than four points since January 12 and MSU has not been beaten by more than eight all season. In a game that comes down at the last minute, Wolverines have the best history, in part because it is a team that generally gets good shots. It also happens throughout the game.

MORE: Couch: From Jaxon Kohler to Down, Msu has rekindled the possibilities of this season by winning how she did it in Illinois

• Prediction: I don’t hate this match for Msu, but I could also be wrong. I think that some Michigan problems play in what MSU does well and that the Spartans are fairly well equipped to counter the Wolverine forces. I can imagine MSU winning this game, which has not always been the case in recent years at the Crisler Center. That said, although Michigan may be due to a bad luck or a regression at the end of the match, there was no sign.

• Do it: Michigan 77, MSU 73

MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s Road, from threatening career surgery to MSU basketball revelation

Contact Graham Couch at gouch@lsj.com. Follow it on x @graham_couch and bluesky @grahamcouch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball in Michigan: prediction, preview, television, Paris line