• What: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan
• When: 3 p.m. Monday
• Or: Breslin Center
• Television/Radio: Big Ten Newtwork/Spartan Sports Network Radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 10-2 and ranked No. 18 in the Coaches and Associated Press polls and No. 15 via the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Western Michigan is 3-8, unranked by major polls and No. 288 on Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU-27
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 717-297 in his 30th season as head coach, all with the Spartans. West Michigan — Dwayne Stephens is 23-49 in his third season as head coach, all with the Broncos.
• Series: MSU leads 28-11 all-time. MSU won early-season meetings in 2021, 2020 and 2019. Before that, surprisingly, the programs hadn’t met since 1998.
Projected compositions
MSU
C (10) Szymón Zapala (7-0) 5.2
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.7
L (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.3
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.3
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.8
WMU
C (10) Max Burton (6-10) 7.0
PF (20) Owen Lobsinger (6-9) 11.4
SF (22) Markhi Strickland (6-8) 12.5
SG (7) Brandon Muntu (6-4) 7.2
PG (2) Chansey Willis (6-2) 17.0
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off an 86-69 win over Florida Atlantic just before Christmas and look healthy and in sync heading into the Big Ten season. After Monday’s game against Western Michigan, the Spartans are back in conference action through March, starting Friday night at Ohio State. MSU has all sorts of ties to WMU, beyond longtime assistant coach Dwayne Stephens, who is the Broncos’ head coach. MSU assistant Thomas Kelley was an assistant at WMU from 2018-22 under Steve Hawkins, Clayton Bates and, briefly, under Stephens, before returning to MSU. Former MSU graduate assistants Chris Fowler and Manny Dosanjh are on Stephens’ coaching staff. And MSU assistant Saddi Washington was WMU’s all-time leading scorer for a time and led the Broncos to the 1998 NCAA Tournament and a first-round victory over Clemson. Washington probably could have held the WMU head coaching job, if he wanted, in 2020 and 2022 while he was an assistant at Michigan.
RELATED: Couch: Saddi Washington didn’t plan to end up at MSU. But lasting relationships make him feel at home.
• WMU update: The Broncos are 3-8 largely because of lost leads and lost bodies. They played seven games without leading scorer and point guard Chansey Willis, and key contributors Donovan Williams and JaVaughn Hannah also missed time. They were all back, however, as the Broncos blew a 22-point lead in the final seven minutes against Valparaiso just before Christmas. WMU has some notable performances, both wins and losses. The Broncos led Dayton by 10 second-half points (No. 31 Kenpom) and also led Butler on the road at halftime. They beat Youngstown State which has won six straight games since. The key for WMU will be conference play. The MAC is a single-bid NCAA tournament league and so all that really matters is how the Broncos play in January and beyond. WMU has a local connection with starting center Max Burton, a redshirt sophomore from Williamston, who is averaging 7.0 points and 5.6 rebounds for the Broncos.
RELATED: Couch: Dwayne Stephens’ return to MSU should be fun, but he’s in the thick of things at WMU
• Correspondence analysis: WMU’s Chansey Willis, a juco transfer from Henry Ford College and former Michigan Mr. Basketball, should be a formidable point guard in the MAC and is someone who will be able to hold his own in a matchup with MSU’s guards. He is a fluid player, particularly effective in creating attack and transition. He can score and play, and having him in the lineup (after missing seven games) should change the Broncos in a big way.
WMU hasn’t shot the ball or defended very well this season so far. The Broncos, however, rebound on both ends at the elite level, including being top 10 in the country at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, according to Kenpom. Owen Lobsinger is a 4-man who can stretch and will take five 3s per game. It only reached 33% this year. But he can score inside and out. And when WMU was at its best, Lobsinger and 6-8 forward Markhi Strickland — a guy inside the arc — gave opponents problems. Shooter Brandon Muntu was making 42% of his 3s a year ago before getting injured. But, like Lobsinger, he is at 33% this season. WMU has good size throughout the formation, including in the backcourt and on the wings. The Broncos look up to the task. They just haven’t defended or shot like that yet.
RELATED: Couch: Is Michigan State men’s basketball back? The numbers suggest MSU’s startup is real
• Prediction: WMU is better than its record and should be competitive in the MAC if the Broncos are healthy the rest of the way. But they haven’t yet shown enough courage or offensive consistency through 40 minutes to think they can stay in this game.
• Do it: MSU 87, WMU 63
MORE: Couch: Jase Richardson’s journey from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball breakthrough
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article was originally published in the Lansing State Journal: MSU vs. WMU Basketball: Prediction, Match Analysis, TV, Betting Line
