Alex Bregman free agency: Where is the market for All-Star third baseman? Red flags, cheap teams don’t help

What a difference a year makes. At the same time in 2024, the industry was wondering when the so-called Boras Four would sign. (For those who have forgotten, that quartet consisted of top 10 free agents Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.) It’s been around the sun, only three of CBS Sports’ top 10 free agents are not still not signed. with a month to spare until pitchers and catchers report.

That trio includes both Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, who cannot sign a deal until the new international amateur free agent signing window opens on Jan. 15, and fellow right-hander Jack Flaherty, whose recent volatility justifies some skepticism. The final and highest-ranked unsigned free agent (No. 3) might surprise a bit, though: longtime Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman.

Bregman, 30, is a two-time All-Star and World Series champion, as well as a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award recipient. He has a 132 OPS+ for his career, and he is tied for 12th for most wins above replacement, compiled since his debut in 2016 – that’s more than Corey Seager, more than Trea Turner , more than Xander Bogaerts, more than Ketel Marte. , more than Bryce Harper and more than many other stars.

So why is Bregman (someone we expected to sign for over $160 million in November) still here? Let’s try to explain it while studying its market.

Skills concerns

To some extent this was predictable. Although I expected Bregman’s eventual contract to make him worthy of the No. 3 ranking (my list is based on expected average annual value), I noted at the time that there were reasons valid to have concerns:

The more we investigated Bregman, the more reservations we developed about his bat. There’s no denying his sense of contact but we’re not as confident about the other elements. For example, Statcast calculations suggest he would have had at least 30 fewer home runs in his career if he had hit the same number of batted balls in any of the other 17 home runs. MLB fields. You can’t blame Bregman – you play golf on the course you’re on – but it suggests his power might be minimized elsewhere. There’s also the matter of his walk rate, which hit a career-low 6.9% last season as he became more aggressive. Bregman’s ball-striking and defensive skills remain good enough for him to provide value; there’s just a little more reason to say “hm” here than the value of its name suggests.

There’s no denying that some players fit certain stages better than others. Look who the Astros got to man third base after the Bregman negotiations stalled: Isaac Paredes. What is Paredes best known for? Shooting the ball through the air at such an extreme level that it is capable of exceeding modest (to be kind) exit velocities. Houston Stadium, with the Crawford Boxes to the left, seems like a perfect fit for Paredes. If you need proof of this, just consider the stats above on how much this has benefited Bregman.

We have to see how Bregman adapts to his new environment, whenever he finds it. Some of those park-assisted homers could turn into doubles, others into outs. Teams with less left-field-friendly dimensions have every reason to worry about the tradeoff. It’s the same thinking that explains why the Astros aren’t rushing to sign a left-handed pitcher with extreme flyball tendencies: It just wouldn’t fit their park.

Likewise, there is evidence that Bregman’s approach was worse than usual last season. Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus developed a statistic called SEAGER that essentially quantifies each hitter’s approach based on their swing decisions.. The higher a player’s SEAGER, the better decisions they make; essentially, it’s a quick way to tell if the hitter in question is swinging when he should and not swinging when he shouldn’t.

With that in mind, here’s a look at Bregman’s ranking (in percentile form) in SEAGER and some corresponding plate discipline metrics since 2020:

Put it all together and it’s not just that Bregman walked less often than usual, or just that he expanded his zone more, or just that he made worse decisions. It’s all of this together. And this at a time when teams, especially those with tougher left fields, need to be absolutely certain that he can maintain his batting and on-base skills over the long term if they want to give him the kind of contract. his story deserves it.

Of course, Bregman’s free agency isn’t just a reflection of his play. It’s also a reflection of an overall cold market.

Lack of spenders

Last month, MLB Trade Rumors Released data on how much each team had spent this offseason. The exact numbers changed with subsequent deals, but at the time, six teams had handed out at least $100 million in free agent contracts combined. Conversely, nine teams spent less than $5 million all winter. Six other teams had handed out less than $30 million in contracts — mind you, that’s not just in 2025 dollars; This is for the duration of the contract.

For reference, Bregman himself made $30 million last season.

Unfortunately for Bregman, he wasn’t a perfect fit for most of the spending teams. The New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers all have enough infielders to justify adding another one. This represents five of the six biggest spending clubs this winter. The other, the New York Yankees, reportedly expressed interest in Bregman, but nothing came of it.

Blame the quagmire of local television contracts; blame the greed of the owners; blame it on whatever other factors you want. The bottom line is that it’s difficult to create a market for a top free agent when there are so few teams willing to tender.

With that in mind, where could Bregman ultimately sign?

Some potential adjustments

Our own Matt Snyder recently highlighted 10 possible landing spots for Bregman. As far as I’m concerned, here are the four most compelling adjustments:

1. Boston Red Sox: I’ve already argued that Boston should attack the offseason. Craig Breslow added starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, among others, but I’d like to see him finish the winter strong. Bregman isn’t the most logical addition considering the Red Sox installed Rafael Devers at third base, but he has signaled he’s ready to move to the keystone. There’s no doubt that Bregman’s game would pair well with the Green Monster.

2. Detroit Tigers: It’s not just the AJ Hinch connection, although I appreciate the easy copy as much as anyone. It’s also that the Tigers should feel empowered by last year’s playoff run to do something big. I’m not sure they see things the same way. The Tigers recently signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal, and as things stand, they can fill out their infield with Colt Keith and Jace Jung at the corners. Granted, Comerica isn’t the best fit for Bregman, but I fear this offseason could become a missed opportunity if the Tigers don’t gain greater momentum in the coming weeks.

3. New York Yankees: The Yankees have been linked to Bregman and, more recently, a myriad of low-end infielders. That suggests they might prefer to take a flier and see how it works before finding a long-term solution at second or third base, whatever position isn’t occupied by Jazz Chisholm Jr. Fair enough , i guess. There’s also the question of whether or not the Yankees could stand to draft someone who was on those sign-stealing Astros teams. I suspect they would do it for the right price.

4. Toronto Blue Jays: This is a team that badly needs direction. If they want to draft Jeff Hoffman, trade for Andrés Giménez, and keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — that is, behave like a team trying to win games in 2025 — then it makes sense to pursue Bregman. If they’re not trying to maximize their chances for the upcoming season — and the appearance of this roster suggests that’s not the case — then it’s harder to understand much of what the Blue Jays are doing have done this offseason.