Analysis: How Nottingham Forest transformed into Premier League title contender

Not so long ago, Nottingham Forest were remembered for bad things. Having secured promotion to the Premier League in 2022 after 23 long years, he brought a record 21 players into the transfer market and narrowly escaped relegation by finishing 16th and 17th respectively in successive seasons. But in the current campaign, he has exceeded expectations in fighting for a European place.

After 20 matches, Forest are third in the table with 40 points, already more than they had managed in the previous two seasons. While a first European place for more than three decades remains within reach, Nuno Espirito Santos’ men would dare to dream of more.

Forest host Liverpool at the City Ground on Tuesday night and a victory could reduce the lead at the top to just three points and firmly place themselves as a surprise title challenger.

Smart recruitment since 2023 followed by the appointment of Nuno has paved the way for Forest’s turnaround. In the last 10 matches, Forest have taken 21 points, losing only against Newcastle United, Arsenal and Manchester City. The Reds are currently on a run of seven victories in all competitions.

Smart recruitment since 2023 followed by the appointment of Nuno has paved the way for Forest’s turnaround. | Photo credit: REUTERS

Low risk, high rewards

Forest have the lowest possession (39.9%) and passes into the opposition penalty box (averaging 22.8) in the division, but their simple plan has allowed them to go against the grain. Nuno put the team in a 4-2-3-1 formation to play counter-attacking football with the use of quick attackers on the flanks.

Forest’s underlying numbers suggest massive overperformance in attack and defense, thanks in large part to two individuals: striker Chris Wood and goalkeeper Matz Sels.

Journeyman Wood’s big-money move to Newcastle United did not go as planned and he was loaned to Forest on a six-month deal before signing permanently in 2023. He is now Forest’s top scorer in the era Premier League. Wood has 12 league goals this season with an xG of 7.2. His conversion rate of 32.35% is better than Mohammed Salah, Cole Palmer, Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak, who all have 13 or more goals.

In fact, Forest’s 29 league goals make it just 13 ^th top scorer in the league and will hope the Kiwi continues to outperform. With a league-best total of 14 the previous season, Wood is on track to improve his own record.

Cut with speed

In recent years, Premier League teams have prioritized moving towards fast-transitioning teams, moving the ball quickly from defense to attack. The league is averaging 1.69 shots on fast breaks in just 199 games played, a massive jump from 0.94 in the 2021/22 season.

Forest laid the foundations in 2023 with the signings of Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, deemed surplus to requirements at Manchester United and Chelsea respectively, who became established strikers at the City Ground. The duo, along with attacking midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White, made Forest a penetrating attacking team, cutting through the opposition’s defensive lines at will.

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In 2023-24, Forest have made a total of 36 fast break shots with a similar theme continuing into the current campaign with 29 fast breaks, making them the third best in the league, while scoring four goals on counter.

The high number of turnovers is also due to his intense pressing in the middle third and in the opposing final third. Forest performs a high-level defensive action after 7.50 passes, allowing them to regain possession and cool down the opposition defense in vulnerable areas. The attacking front four and two combative central midfielders of Ryan Yates and Elliot Anderson played a crucial role in this.

Salts holds the fort

But it was the impressive defensive numbers that transformed Forest from a relegation candidate to a Champions League contender.

He has the most clean sheets (9), the second best defensive record (19 goals conceded) and has conceded the fewest goals from his penalty area (78.95%). His back five remained largely intact with Sels stationed behind the defense of Ola Aina, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo and Neco Williams. The signings of the experienced Sels and Milenkovic have been crucial in improving Forest’s fortunes.

Sels’ save record of 76% is third best in the league, a marked improvement from 20 ^th and a 15th place finish for the metric in the previous two campaigns. His form was on display in Forest’s recent 3-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers, where Sels made five big saves to whitewash the home side.

The low block of the 4-4-2 in defensive transition allowed Forest to limit opposing shots on goal (3.85) and counter-attack shots (13) to a premium. Forest’s strong defensive structure means they are the only team other than Arsenal who have not conceded a goal due to errors.

Forest have dropped just nine points from 17 matches when they took the lead this campaign. The Reds made it difficult for opposing teams to get into any sort of rhythm by slowing things down using intelligent game management while also toeing the line of “dark arts.”

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During the 2022-23 season, Forest needed an average of 28.4 seconds to restart the game and were the ninth worst offenders in the league. In the current season, Forest top the table with 32.1 seconds of restarting play. Nuno’s men have received six yellows for time wasting – they rank third behind Arsenal and Bournemouth. Goalkeeper Sels was booked twice for delaying penalties, in the 1-0 win over Liverpool at Anfield and the 1-1 draw at Chelsea.

Runaway leaders Liverpool’s only league defeat came at the hands of Nuno’s Forest. Similar tactics and game management will be on display when Liverpool visit under the lights on Tuesday. Slot compared Manchester United’s style to that of Forest when they held Liverpool to a 2-2 draw at Anfield last week and will need to find a response to prevent his side falling into the same trap.

Despite returning points, Opta’s supercomputer simulations still give Forest a 0% chance of winning the league title, while Manchester City, placed 12 points behind Liverpool, are offered a glimmer of 0.4%. The artificial intelligence tool has been influenced by Forest’s time in the wild for more than two decades, but Nuno and his men are said to be keen to deliver another shock to the system by upending the odds.