The conference schedule is reaching the halfway point as the calendar moves to February. While this is generally a good indicator of which teams will be regular season champions, it is more difficult to discern in an era of crowded conferences. Many conference leaders have not faced other teams at the top. Only one program is more than one game ahead in the five major conferences.
The one exception is typical: Connecticut (19-2, 10-0) holds a 1.5-game advantage in the Big East after its 72-61 victory at Creighton (16-4, 8-1).
The biggest game of the week between South Carolina and Tennessee on Monday highlights two programs asking some of the toughest questions in the AP poll.
Does South Carolina have a case for No. 1?
It’s hard to ignore what South Carolina has done since losing to UCLA in November. It’s almost impossible to ignore what the Gamecocks have done this month alone. They absolutely have a strong case for #1, even though their only loss was to the #1 ranked team since Week 4.
After a 66-56 win over No. 5 LSU on Friday night, South Carolina is 9-1 in Quad 1 games. No other team has more than nine wins. No, they are not undefeated. But they’re 19-1 and playing the toughest schedule in the country with just one loss to UCLA in November. In eight wins against AP-ranked opponents, their margin of victory is 23 points per game. UCLA’s is 13.6 in five wins.
South Carolina wins SEC games by an average margin of 26.5 points (Kentucky is second at 14.7). UCLA’s average margin of victory in the Big Ten is 19.8, behind USC (22.4). Deciding between these requires subjectively measuring which conference is better at the midpoint.
UCLA is also a fair No. 1 selection. The Bruins are undefeated in a power conference in February and that’s no easy task. But to say they should be the subject of consensus is to ignore the other spectacular performances so far.
Are Tennessee’s close calls still worthy of the top 20?
On the surface, the Lady Vols’ resume depicts a four-loss team that failed in conference play. They are ninth in the conference standings and are the only ranked team with a losing record in conference play.
Tennessee’s signature non-conference wins are back-to-back contests against Florida State at home in the SEC/ACC Challenge and on neutral court against Iowa in the Champions Classic. The former improves each week, taking the place of the latter as the Hawkeyes slip.
They have a losing record (2-4) in Quad 1 games and are just over .500 in the NET top 100, games through Saturday.
Yet they are still among the top 20 teams in the country, where they have remained in the AP poll since their Dec. 9 re-entry at No. 19. And there’s no reason to move them around a lot.
Their four losses are by a combined eight points to Oklahoma (one point), Vanderbilt (one), LSU (two) and Texas (four). All are in the NET top 20, led by Texas (3) and LSU (9). Unlike previous losses to the Sooners and Commodores, Tennessee didn’t have to dig out of a hole against the Longhorns last week. The game never went more than six points one way or the other and Texas scored the final four points of the game.
To be fair, the Lady Vols weren’t able to find game-winning baskets in the final minutes and that’s a problem when it comes to the month of March. Moral victories don’t mean much and head coach Kim Caldwell called his team into close calls last week before the Texas game.
Caldwell missed Thursday’s loss to Texas after giving birth to her first child earlier in the week. She said she will return to the bench when Tennessee hosts South Carolina on Monday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Can TCU maintain its double-digit lead in March?
TCU is a late tournament caliber team through three quarters. In the fourth, it’s touch-and-go. The Horned Frogs coughed up a big second-half lead for the fourth straight game Sunday, letting a 22-point cushion fall to three in the final 15 seconds.
Late free throws pushed TCU (20-2, 8-1 Big 12) to its first win over Baylor since Feb. 28, 1990. Texas native Sedona Prince said ending the 37-game losing streak was a career highlight after watching the Bears’ big national championship as a kid. That gives them the tiebreaker against Baylor (16-5, 6-2) for the regular-season Big 12 title. Neither faced Kansas State (19-2, 7-1).
The Horned Frogs weren’t so lucky earlier in the week when they were outscored 36-20 by Oklahoma State in the second half of a 60-59 loss to the unranked team. Big leads disappeared last week against Central Florida (90-81 victory) and Utah (81-73).
“I wish it was as simple as that when you go in at halftime and other teams aren’t making adjustments,” TCU head coach Mark Campbell said Sunday. “But our group is growing because of it. In the Oklahoma State game, the game before, I will get a lot of the blame for failing to manage the second half wisely. At the same time, we are a new group going through this journey together. The way they ran the clock and handled the end of the game today was the day and night of the Oklahoma State game.
TCU is a much different team from when it held an emergency session to fill out its roster a year ago. Fifth-year guard Hailey Van Lith has improved at the point guard position, averaging 5.8 career assists (17th in DI) and close to a career best (18.3 points per game, 54th rank). The two-way matchup with the 6-foot-7 Prince yields career efficiency numbers for center while Madison Conner and Agnes Emma-Nnopu power the team’s top-10 3-point percentages.
Will Maryland’s injuries lead to a complete tailspin?
Of all the teams that fell last week, Maryland’s free fall was the most crushing. The Terps started the week on the wrong end of a blowout against then-No. 7 Texas on national television, fell to number 1 at the time. 12 Days Later Ohio State and appeared in prime time, unable to keep up with No. 1 UCLA.
The first half performance against the best team in the country on Sunday was valiant considering their situation. Maryland (16-4, 6-3 Big Ten) is without two of its top three scorers, Bri McDaniel and Shyanne Sellers. They’re the only ones averaging double digits and are first and second in team assists.
“We’re just trying to adapt as quickly as possible,” head coach Brenda Frese said. “You look at when you’re in that routine, and you’re literally doing a day of prep for practice, and… it’s hard. You do it with limited practice time and lots of film. So we try to leverage our strengths.
McDaniel is out for the season and Sellers, named Big Ten Player of the Week seven days ago, is considered day-to-day. The loss shifts the Big Ten regular season odds further in favor of UCLA (20-0, 8-0) and USC (18-1, 8-0). The Los Angeles programs will host Ohio State (19-1, 8-1) next week.
Games of the week
South Carolina (19-1, 7-0 SEC) at Tennessee (15-4, 3-4 SEC), Monday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) – The Gamecocks aim for the final gem of their midseason challenge.
North Carolina (18-4, 6-3 ACC) at California (18-3, 6-2), Thursday at 10 p.m. ET (ACCN) — The Bears are one of the surprises of the season shaking up the ACC after realignment, but they have yet to see most of the conference’s best.
Official AP Rankings
1.UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Notre Dame
4.USC
5.Texas
6. UConn
7. LSU
8. Ohio State
9. TCU
10. Duke
11. Kansas State
12.Kentucky
13. Oklahoma
14. Maryland
15. North Carolina
16. Michigan State
17. NC State
18.Tennessee
19. Cal
20. Georgia Tech
21. West Virginia
22.Alabama
23. Vanderbilt
24. Oklahoma State
25. Florida
Yahoo Sports AP voting
1.South Carolina
2.UCLA
3. Notre Dame
4.USC
5.Texas
6. UConn
7. LSU
8. TCU
9.Kentucky
10. Ohio State
11. Kansas State
12. Duke
13. Maryland
14. North Carolina
15.Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Georgia Tech
18. Michigan State
19. West Virginia
20. NC State
21.Michigan
22. Baylor
23. Vanderbilt
24.Alabama
25. Creighton
