Best Anytime TD Bets for Commanders vs Eagles in Week 11

First place in the NFC East is on the line when the Washington Commanders (7-3) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) on Thursday Night Football in Week 11.

The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a five-game winning streak thanks to a dominant defense. They are the betting favorites with a spread of -3.5 in this game, while the over/under is set at 48.5 points in total on most betting sites.

The Commanders are coming off a tough one-point loss to the Steelers last week, which knocked them out of first place in the division. They look to bounce back with a huge road win to reclaim first place.

Starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, but will return for this contest. In his absence, veteran Austin Ekeler has scored three touchdowns in the last two games. Could either of these Washington backs be a good bet to score a touchdown at any point this week?

This article examines the best bets on touchdowns at any time in this crucial primetime game. Each pick is based on the best betting odds at the time of publication, but odds are always subject to change, so research the best odds at all the best online sportsbooks before placing a bet.

Over the past few weeks, Jalen Hurts has been the Eagles’ best anytime TD pick, based on the basic premise that the bet is worth making at any time, his anytime TD odds are better than l equal money. After four straight games with a rushing TD, including three games with multiple TDs, sportsbooks took notice and finally dropped their odds into negative territory. However, its price is still close to matching price at sportsbooks such as FanDuel, and it’s still good enough to be a great bet again this week.

Hurts is virtually unstoppable when he approaches the goal line, especially when the Eagles run their (in)famous “push” play. He’s already scored 10 rushing touchdowns this season, trailing only the Ravens’ Derrick Henry (12) for the league lead. He now has double-digit touchdowns in his four seasons as a full-time starter and his 51 career rushing touchdowns trail only Cam Newton and Josh Allen for the most all-time by a quarterback -back.

Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in six of his nine games this season and in 34 of his 61 games (55.7%) over the last four seasons. This is an incredibly consistent touchdown production that isn’t fully reflected in his -105 rating, which only implies a 51.2% probability. These odds have value, currently sitting at -110 at most NFL betting sites.

This should also be a good matchup and play scenario to produce scoring opportunities for Hurts. With a relatively high over/under, the Eagles are expected to score at least two or three touchdowns in this game. The Commanders defense also struggles in the red zone, where Hurts is so effective. Washington has allowed touchdowns on 70 percent of its opponents’ possessions in the red zone, which is the third-highest rate in the league. The Eagles convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns at a rate of 60%, 10th best in the league.

When the Eagles get close to the goal line, there’s a good chance they’ll score a touchdown against Washington. And when they do, Hurts is the player most likely to hit. This makes him the best TD bet at any point in this game.

In two games against the Commanders last season, AJ Brown had 17 catches on 21 targets for 305 yards and four touchdowns. Since joining the Eagles, he has scored touchdowns in three of his four games against Washington. So if there’s one Eagles wide receiver to bet on for a touchdown this week, it’s Brown.

The Commanders pass defense has been terrible for several seasons. Although the season was better than in recent years, there is a reason the front office went out and spent third and fourth round picks to acquire Saints CB Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. They desperately needed reinforcements in their secondary if they were going to make a push to win the NFC East and make some noise in the playoffs.

St-Juste has struggled this season and was the culprit in Steelers WR Mike Williams’ game-winning TD last week. Sainristil is a promising rookie, but he plays out of position on the outside, where he is severely undersized at just 5’10” and 182 pounds. AJ Brown is 6’2″ and 225 pounds. No matter who lines up against him, Brown will have a major advantage in this matchup.

Brown has scored touchdowns in each of his first three games of the season, but is currently in a three-game drought. That is bound to change sooner or later, and this game creates a favorable situation for him to get back into the end zone.

Just for fun, here are two players facing off against their former teams: longtime Eagles tight end Zach Ertz and former Commanders first-round pick Jahan Dotson.

Ertz has been one of Jayden Daniels’ most reliable targets this season. He’s second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, and his nine red zone targets are a team high, but he only has one touchdown to show for it. The Eagles have always struggled defending tight ends, but this season they are one of two teams that have not allowed a touchdown at the position. How much longer can this continue?

This will be Ertz’s second game against his former team since trading him to the Cardinals during the 2021 season, and it will be his first game back in Philadelphia. It would be pretty poetic for Ertz to score a touchdown against the Eagles and do it in front of the fans who have supported him for so many years. But it’s not just a narrative choice. Ertz is a big part of the commanders who should see positive regression in touchdowns.

Dotson hasn’t had a huge impact for the Eagles since they traded a third-round pick to acquire him during the preseason. He had some opportunities with injuries to Brown and DeVonta Smith earlier this season, but he failed to capitalize. He has just eight catches on 15 targets all season.

That said, Dotson has started to show more promise over the past couple of weeks. He created explosive passes of 36 and 27 yards in the last two games, including a catch against the Jaguars. These plays could earn more confidence from Hurts and could lead to more opportunities in the future. With odds of +950 on FanDuel, betting on Dotson is a major goal, but it might be worth taking a look to see if this trend continues.