Very few people expected the Denver Broncos to make the playoffs this season. There was also a lot of skepticism towards the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills have proven that as long as Josh Allen is in his prime, they will be Super Bowl contenders. Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs in the offseason and Allen responded with a fantastic season that could end up earning him his first NFL MVP award. The Bills easily won the AFC East.
The Broncos hadn’t made the playoffs since the 2015 season and had a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. But Nix played very well, the Broncos defense was among the best in the NFL, and Denver ended its playoff drought.
The match
No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Highmark Stadium
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
How to Watch the Broncos at Bills
The game will be broadcast by CBS and may also be streamed on Paramount+.
Betting Odds
The Bills are 9-point favorites than BetMGM. This is the second-biggest wild-card weekend, with only the Ravens being the biggest favorites. The total is 47 points.
X factor
The Broncos’ pass rush is the team’s strength. Denver led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than any other. On the other hand, the Bills had only allowed 14 sacks, eight fewer than any other team. Zach Allen had an exceptional season and deserved to make the Pro Bowl. Allen had 8.5 sacks and led all NFL interior linemen with 65 quarterback pressures, via Next Gen Stats. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper combined for 24 sacks off the edge. If the Broncos want to spring a surprise, it will be because they can do what no other team has been able to do this season: sack Josh Allen.
How the Broncos can win
Bo Nix wasn’t immune to turnovers, but he had 10 games this season in which he didn’t throw an interception. It’s very hard to believe the Broncos can win if they don’t win the turnover battle. This is still a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start in a tough road environment.
Nix had an excellent season. If he can make some plays and take care of the ball, the Broncos have the defense to keep them in the game. A clean sheet from Nix in the turnover category is the starting point for Denver’s upset bid.
How the Bills can win
Over the years, the Bills have been struck by the fact that they rely too much on Josh Allen to do everything. This works for bills. It was another season in which questions arose about Allen’s supporting cast, but he threw 40 touchdowns and led the Bills to an easy division title. The Broncos defense won’t make it easy for Allen, but if he plays his normal game, the Bills should advance to the divisional round.
Prediction
The Broncos have been tough all season, even on the road. They beat the Buccaneers. They blocked a field goal to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They led the Chargers at halftime on the road and took the Bengals to overtime. This doesn’t seem like a team that will be intimidated playing in Buffalo, even with a rookie quarterback. The Bills have been very good all season and should win, but Denver has the ingredients to scare Buffalo and keep it close until the end. Bills 26, Broncos 21
