The Oklahoma City Thunder have become the Western Conference betting favoritesbut their NBA Cup loss to the Milwaukee Bucks exposed critical flaws.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has firmly established himself as an MVP candidate, but it’s not yet clear if he has an actual co-star. Jalen Williams showed flashes of brilliance but fell short in critical moments last season, averaging 17 points on just 50.8 percent true shooting in Oklahoma City’s second-round loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
Williams returned this season with a stronger 3-point shot, but struggled in the NBA Cup playoffs:
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18 points on 21 shots against Dallas
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20 points on 20 shots against Houston
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18 points on 20 shots against Milwaukee
In total, that’s 18.7 points per game on 44% true shooting. Williams struggled to get to the basket against players like AJ Green and Gary Trent in the championship game and was largely ineffective when an assist passed. It’s only one game, but it was a repeat of his issues against the Mavericks with the inability to consistently create space for quality looks.
Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t at his best either, scoring 21 points on 24 shots. Andre Jackson shut him up on several occasions. But we’ve seen SGA dominate on the biggest stage, something Williams has yet to do. And that’s absolutely fair: SGA is already 26 years old, while Williams is only 23 in only his third season. The fact that Williams is already this good – 21/6/5 with versatile defense – gives him clear All-Star potential.
But can Williams become a more consistent star talent by this spring? Maybe. Chet Holmgren should be back at some point and would also provide more perimeter creation, so perhaps the Thunder will have enough by committee to take the hotter hand. But when defenses tighten up, the lack of consistency in this team’s secondary shot creation becomes evident. This raises the question:
Is this Thunder group built to win a title or is it still just a work in progress?
Some Thunder fans will say the team is coming off a horrible shooting night against the Bucks. Fair. The Thunder shot 15.6% from 3 (5 for 32), their worst number of the season. But they rank 19th in 3-point percentage on the season, which isn’t surprising because the roster is full of good shooters but few truly great ones. And the Bucks entered the contest with a game plan allowing those players to shoot, rather than letting SGA or Williams enter the paint at will.
Milwaukee had Giannis Antetokounmpo move away from Lu Dort to help in the paint, and he would blatantly ignore Alex Caruso when defending him. Dort has become a standstill shooter, but Caruso is extremely streaky on low volume in his career. This season he’s only made 25.9% of his 3s. As great as he is defensively, it looks like he’ll be the player to get the Josh Giddey treatment in the playoffs. Should the Thunder consider making a trade?
Sam Presti has an unprecedented stockpile of draft picks, giving him the flexibility to trade for almost any player in the league outside of the untouchables. But will he act? Last season, Presti opted for patience, targeting a low-cost veteran in Gordon Hayward, who was so washed up that he ended up retiring after the season. But this was OKC’s first real attempt at making the playoffs, so it made sense to get out there and find out what the team really needed.
The Thunder discovered they needed size. So they went and got Isaiah Hartenstein. And they needed someone better than Giddey, so they replaced him with Caruso. This season, it seems clear that the Thunder need more shooting. A larger size would be nice too. And perhaps a backup spark plug guard could help provide the support SGA needs.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Presti needs to move some of his picks around and consolidate existing players on the roster.
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Seven players I would try to target:
• Herb Jones, Pelicans: Reports indicate that New Orleans is not willing to trade Herb. But untouchable? I doubt it. The Thunder have enough picks to change anyone’s mind, and Herb is the type of all-around defender who would give them size to complement their more perimeter-oriented stoppers.
• Pascal Siakam, Pacers: Siakam would provide championship pedigree, shot creation and size on defense. The Pacers just traded for him less than a year ago, but given how the franchise has taken a step back, they might be more willing to accept multiple role players and a stack of draft picks .
• John Collins, Jazz: Collins is averaging 18 points and nearly having a 50-40-90 season while shooting 53.4% from the field, 43.6% from 3 and 88.8% from the line. Collins would be insurance if Holmgren couldn’t return healthy, and they could play together even if he came back better than ever.
• Collin Sexton, Jazz: Sexton isn’t the biggest name by any means, but he provides a spark every time the ball is in his hands and he’s a good shooter right out of the catch. At 25, he would also fit OKC’s timeline.
• Larry Nance, Falcons: Nance is a do-it-all forward/big guy who can defend on the perimeter, provide some rim protection, shoot, facilitate and finish lobs. He’s not great in any category, which is why he’s a career rotation player. But OKC could use him in a ton of different roles depending on the series.
• Cam Johnson, Nets: At 6-foot-8, Johnson is a knockdown shooter who is making 43.3 percent of his 3s this season. He is not an advocate of containment, but he would at least provide the necessary size.
• Cam Thomas, Nets: Some support behind SGA would be a nice addition, just in case Williams doesn’t become the man by the playoffs. Thomas hasn’t done anything in the playoffs, but he’s a true bucket chaser who shines when given the chance.
The Thunder’s future is undeniably bright, but the championship windows are fragile. A single injury, unexpected chemistry issues or roster-building missteps can close it out quicker than expected. Look no further than the 2010s Thunder team featuring Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. The trio reached a final and the basketball world thought it was just the beginning of their reign. But the Thunder never came back. And they eventually disbanded.
Now, this iteration of the Thunder faces a familiar dilemma: gamble on patience or urgency. Presti’s next move could define a generation. Play well and there could be a golden age in Oklahoma City. But wait too long, and this team risks becoming another “what if” in the annals of NBA history.