One of the biggest games of Week 18 will take place in Denver, where the Broncos will host the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that means everything to one team and nothing to the other.
If the Broncos win, they will clinch their first playoff berth since 2015, which would end the of the NFL second longest active playoff drought. On the other hand, if the Broncos lose, that would open the door for the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals to sneak in and steal the AFC’s final playoff spot.
As for the Chiefs, they have already clinched first place in the overall AFC standings, so they have nothing to play for.
With the chefs plan to rest most of their starters this weekthe Broncos may feel like a lock in this game, but anyone who has watched the NFL long enough knows there are no locks in this league.
Although the Chiefs are a 9.5-point underdog against Denver, they’ve been in this situation before under Andy Reid and they’ve done pretty well. The Chiefs have benched their starters in the final week of the season a total of four times since Reid became coach in 2013 and they are 2-2 in those games (and 3-1 against the ‘gap).
Let’s take a look at the four games in which Kansas City rested its starters:
2013: Chargers 27-24 in overtime against Chiefs (Chiefs were 14.5 point underdogs)
2017: Chiefs 27-24 vs. Broncos (Chiefs were 3-point underdogs)
2020: Chargers 38-21 over Chiefs (Chiefs were 7-point underdogs)
2023: Chiefs 13-12 over Chargers (Chiefs were 3.5 point underdogs)
The 2013 game is the one that most closely resembles what we’ll see this week: the Chargers needed a win to make the playoffs and the Chiefs had nothing to play for. The Chargers were favored by 14.5 points, still the largest point spread the Chiefs have faced as an underdog in Reid’s 12 seasons with the team.
Even though the Chiefs had every reason to lose this game, they actually led 24-14 with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter and would have won if Ryan Succop hadn’t missed a 41-yard field goal with just eight seconds left. play. play.
Had Succop converted his kick, the Steelers would have made the playoffs, but the Chargers ended up winning in overtime, which sent them to the playoffs. This time around we have another AFC North team (Bengals) hoping the Chiefs can recapture some of their 2013 magic, except with a win at the end instead of an overtime loss.
Reid has already said that Carson Wentz will start on Sunday, which means Patrick Mahomes will be on the bench. However, it’s the NFL, so you can’t bench everyone. With only 53 players on the roster, there will be regular starters playing Sunday, just like last year when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 13-12 in Week 18 in a game where the Chiefs were an underdog. 3.5 points.
In the graphic below, you can see who could be on the field for the Chiefs this week.
Even though a win could put the Bengals (or Dolphins) in the playoffs, Reid doesn’t seem to think much of it. Reid has proven that he will put his players in the best position to succeed whether the starters are there or not.
The fact that Wentz is Kansas City’s starting quarterback on Sunday could be a good thing for the Bengals and Dolphins, as he has a lot to prove and he will likely be playing with a chip on his shoulder. This game will mark only Wentz’s second start since the start of the 2023 season.
“I’m going to prepare to go out there and win and then have a good performance with this offense,” Wentz said this week. via ESPN.com. “I had a chance last year and so for me it’s just not about taking those chances for granted and having fun with them (and) letting them go.”
This one-shot from last year also took place in a regular season finale. Wentz was playing for the Rams and he led them to a Week 18 win over the 49ers in a game where Los Angeles was a 4-point underdog. Basically, both Wentz and Reid have plenty of experience when it comes to winning meaningless games late in the season.
The Bengals and Dolphins will need a miracle victory from the Chiefs to have a chance in the playoffs and it’s a miracle that Kansas City can actually pull it off.
