The Arizona Diamondbacks have landed the top starting pitcher on the free agent market. D and right-hander Corbin Burnes agreed to a six-year contract, the team announced Monday. According to the New York Post, Burnes’ contract with Arizona is worth $210 million and includes an opt-out clause after the 2026 season.
Burnes, 30, joined the Baltimore Orioles as part of a three-player trade with the Milwaukee Brewers last offseason. He had a tremendous season with the O’s, pitching 194 ⅓ innings with a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts. This earned him a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Burnes allowed one run in eight innings in his only postseason start.
Our RJ Anderson ranked Burnes as the second best free agent available this offseasonbehind only Juan Soto. Here is his article:
On the surface, Burnes is clearly the best and most reliable starting pitcher in this free agent class. He earned four straight trips to the All-Star Game; he is among the league leaders in innings pitched since the pandemic; and he’s proven his game works just as well inside the American League as it does outside of Milwaukee, as if there was any doubt. Still, if you look at his profile closely enough, you’ll notice some hints of a potential decline. For starters, Burnes’ strikeout rate deteriorated for a fourth straight year, falling below one batter per inning for the first time in his career. His trademark cutter, the main pitch in his bag, performed his worst (highest average and lowest whiff rate) until some late-season tinkering helped him get back on track. good path. His contact rate in the zone, meanwhile, puts him in the same neighborhood occupied by Kyle Gibson, Chris Flexen and Carson Fulmer, among others. Mind you, none of the above stopped Burnes from having another high-quality season. His control remains superb, allowing him to control the quality of contact like few others can. Burnes himself explained his strikeout rate by saying he prioritized early strikeouts. Maybe so, but we think teams will think a little longer and a little harder than expected before offering him a long-term contract.
As noted, Burnes has seen his strikeout rate gradually decline since becoming a full-time member of the rotation in 2021. He struck out 35.6% of batters he faced in 2021, a high number of range for a starter. That’s down to 30.5% in 2022, 25.5% in 2023, and a near-perfect league average of 23.1% in 2024. Burnes remains excellent, but this is a notable decline. Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award as a member of the Brewers in 2021, and he now finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for five straight years. Burnes enters the 2025 season with a career ERA+ of 129 and a career WAR of 17.1 over seven major league seasons.
With Arizona, Burnes joins a potentially strong rotation that also includes Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. The Diamondbacks, who won the National League pennant in 2023, are coming off a 2024 season in which they went 89-73 and narrowly missed securing a wild card berth in playoffs.
