Fact or fiction: The Phoenix Suns have nowhere to go but up

Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll dig deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines to try to determine whether the trends are based more on fact or fiction.

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Fact or fiction: The Phoenix Suns have nowhere to go but up

The Phoenix Suns, the NBA’s most expensive team, owe $188 million in luxury taxes – as much as the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers combined – are 15-17. , outside the Western Conference playoff picture.

Is there hope in the Valley of the Sun?

Phoenix clings to the idea that everything is fine once everyone is healthy. Only the New Orleans Pelicans have lost more salary to injury this season. for Spotrac. The Suns are 8-4 when they line up Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal together. Their projected starting lineup is 7-3. This is their reason for optimism.

Of course, as soon as Booker returned from left groin soreness on New Year’s Eve, Beal left with a hip injury. Beal hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season since 2018-19. He’s missed 40 percent of his games over the past four years and hasn’t been available for more than seven straight games this season. Durant is 36 years old. He has played more minutes than all but 27 players in NBA history.. Even Booker has missed an average of 19 games over the past three seasons. They could not stay healthy.

So this year, like last year, we wonder what life could be like for the Suns if only they could find their feet. Durant, Booker and Beal finished last season with a 26-15 record, outscoring their opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions, enough to reasonably believe they could do some damage together in the postseason.

Then came the playoffs. Durant, Booker and Beal took the court together and each performed well from an individual offensive standpoint, averaging a combined 71 points on 50/40/89 shooting splits. But as a collective, they only put up 106.8 points per 100 possessions, equating to the worst offense in the league, and were worse on defense (124.7 rating), losing in the first round against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

That trend continues, as the Suns have been outscored by 4.3 points per 100 possessions in Durant, Booker and Beal’s 197 minutes together this season. As we approach the halfway point of this season, Phoenix owns a sub-.500 record, one game out of the play-in tournament and four of a guaranteed playoff spot.

“It’s never easy in this league,” Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters after Tuesday’s loss, their third in a row and sixth in seven games. via Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic. “We have guys who have won at a high level, who have high expectations, high standards. … We have to find ways to improve. These are not easy times, but guys will find a way to get better. We will find a way out of this together.”

One could hear in Budenholzer’s voice the calls to stay connected or connect or, at the very least, avoid fracturing completely. It was the same message that reserve center Mason Plumlee sent before their loss to the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies: “Victories and defeats be what they are in the momentbut I really like our team, the way we communicate, the way we react. I feel good about us going forward.”

There’s what the Suns tell us and what they show us, and what they show us is an average team, even when healthy, and they’re rarely healthy. For as much movement as Budenholzer injected into the offense, they are what they were on that side – a top 10 unit that should be better. No amount of movement can change the fact that their three stars are more redundant than complementary.

And they’re bad on defense, a bottom-10 team, allowing 115 points per 100 possessions. Worse than they were last season, when their mediocre defense was a factor in the firing of head coach Frank Vogel. There is no path to a championship-caliber defense in Phoenix, not with the three stars the Suns have at the helm, not with Tyus Jones as the starting point guard, not with Jusuf Nurkić as the starting center.

The second apron, along with a lack of draft assets, makes any move to the sidelines nearly impossible. The Suns, for example, were unable to compete with the Los Angeles Lakers for the services of Dorian Finney-Smith. And what would that have accomplished anyway? As is the case with the Lakers, a little better still remains a sub-conflict.

So what do the Suns do? Pay exorbitant luxury taxes this season and next, then pay Durant at age 38 when his current contract expires, perpetuating mediocrity for the remainder of Booker’s prime? It’s a foolish strategy, even for a new owner, Mat Ishbia, who apparently doesn’t care about financial losses.

Yet this is the path the Suns are taking.

It took the Lakers more than three years to resolve the Russell Westbrook trade mistake. If it takes this long to unpack the deal for Beal, which was also arguably a mistake, Booker will be 31 on the other side, getting closer to the end of his current contract.

The idea that the Suns were in the Jimmy Butler sweepstakes, reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania at one pointit was laughable. That or any deal for a star would have required someone to take on the remaining $157 million on Beal’s contract, which is not the case — especially not for a package that elevates the Suns into contention. No one will do Phoenix any favors at such great cost to themselves.

As fresh as the facade may seem — Durant, Booker and Beal have only played 53 games together — this is a teardown. There is no road to a championship that runs through an aging Durant and an overpaid Beal. The Suns took two big shots, and if they had the chance, they would almost certainly take two mulligans.

If the Suns want to save Booker, there’s no choice but to trade Durant — now, not when his 37-year-old contract expires next season. Maybe he can get them some coins to speed up the rebuilding. Worry about moving Beal when they have the flexibility to do so. Hopefully it won’t take so long that it also costs them Booker’s trust in the franchise. This is the reality now facing the most expensive roster in the NBA.

By the way, this isn’t even a hot idea. The Hot Bottom Line: If winning a title is the ultimate goal, the Brooklyn Nets — the tank team that traded Durant to Phoenix in February 2023 — are better positioned than the Suns, with their own draft pick (and a shot on Cooper Flagg), plus a blank salary cap sheet. This flexibility allows for upward mobility, while the Suns, well, they’re stuck except for an exit strategy.

Determination: Fiction. The Suns have one place to go: a complete rebuild.