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The Coach Prime team is about to experience something special
By
William Schwartz
&
RJ White
November 17, 2024 at 7:57 a.m. ET
5 minutes of reading
| WHO | Utah Utes vs. No. 17 Colorado Buffaloes |
| When | Saturday at noon ET |
| Or | Folsom Field | Boulder, Colorado. |
| How to watch | FOX |
Love him or hate him, you watched him and now you have to own up to what he did. After a blowout win over Texas Tech, Coach Deion (Primetime) Sanders has his Colorado Buffaloes at 7-2 (5-1 in the Big 12) and controlling their own College Football Playoff destiny.
Colorado is alone in second in the conference, just one game behind undefeated BYU (9-0, 6-0). That means the Buffaloes will reach the Big 12 Championship Game if they win, and if they win that game they will make the College Football Playoff.
This week, Sanders’ team will face the team many expected to break through the Big 12 and earn a playoff spot, the Utah Utes. But another season-ending injury to veteran quarterback Cameron Rising derailed Utah’s season. And Isaac Wilson (brother of NFL quarterback Zach Wilson) failed to produce during a five-game losing streak after a 4-0 start to the season.
One thing that hasn’t changed for the Utes is that they have the tough, fundamentally sound defensive traits of so many Kyle Whittingham-coached teams. Although Colorado has impressed on the offensive side of the ball, it hasn’t faced many defensive units like this, and the best defense the Buffaloes have seen thus far (Nebraska) has limited Colorado to 10 points in an ugly defeat.
However, the Buffaloes may not need to fully display their usual offensive fireworks to win this one, considering Utah’s offensive play of late and the drastic improvement in the Utah defense. Colorado compared to a year ago.
| Walk | FanDuel | Caesars | PariMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah is spreading | +9.5 (+100) | +10 (-110) | +10 (-110) |
| The Colorado Spread | -9.5 (-122) | -10 (-110) | -10 (-110) |
| Utah Money Line | +290 | +300 | +290 |
| Colorado Silver Line | -375 | -385 | -375 |
| On | Over 47.5 (-110) | Over 47.5 (-110) | Over 47.5 (-110) |
| Below | Under 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110) |
Why Utah can cover
The Utes aren’t going to win a shootout, so their path to pulling off the big upset on the road will be to limit Colorado’s offense, especially through the air. The Buffaloes don’t run the ball very well, but they barely try. They’re more than comfortable throwing on first down or tackling third-and-long, so beating them really means slowing down quarterback Shedeur Sanders and co.
The good news for Utah is that it has the ability to do exactly that. The Utes’ pass defense ranks sixth in the nation in success rate and 14th in EPA per play. Van Fillinger led a defensive front with six sacks and a win rate of over 20 percent, while seven different defenders recorded interceptions for the Utes. If Utah’s pass defense stays steady, this game could be over.
Why the Buffaloes can cover
Between Sanders’ top-10 passing production and Heisman Trophy candidate Travis Hunter’s remarkable receiving numbers while moonlighting as a star cornerback, the offensive side of the ball doesn’t need a lot of introduction. The improved offensive line and the presence of LaJohntay Wester as a key second player after his transfer from Florida Atlantic have also been transformative.
However, facing Utah’s quality pass defense, Colorado may need to lead with its own defensive unit. But unlike a year ago, that’s not such a bad thing. The defense ranks 20th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate, with a specialty in pass stopping. Thanks in part to Hunter’s contributions as a cornerback, the defense has the 32nd best defensive success rate and 20th best EPA in the country.
The ground defense is nowhere near as strong for the Buffaloes, but Utah’s ground game is 102nd in the nation in EPA per play and 89th in success rate. Running back Micah Bernard had a solid season for the Utes, but he declined significantly after a hot start to the year. He’s far from Utah’s biggest problem right now, but if he’s asked to be the sole driving force of a one-dimensional offense, Colorado will have no complaints with that approach. .
Best bet on Utah vs. Colorado: Colorado -10.5 (FanDuel, -110)
All signs point to Utah struggling to progress offensively in this game. His offense ranks outside the top 100 in the country by almost every metric, and that includes a strong start to the year. Over the past month and a half, the Utes have been in an offensive free fall, having scored more than 10 points just once in that span. Against a surprisingly strong Buffs defense, Utah should have a similar performance.
Prediction: Colorado 29, Utah 16
