European countries will know their path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada in the draw on Friday.
Here’s everything you need to know about the UEFA confederation qualifying campaign.
When is the draw for the World Cup qualifiers?
The draw will take place on Friday at 11am UK / 6am ET.
What are draw pots?
The eight teams competing in the UEFA Nations League (UNL) quarter-finals have been automatically placed in Pot 1, alongside England, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria.
Indeed, the winners of the UNL quarterfinals must be in a group of four and have free international dates in March and June.
It turned out that the 12 teams in Pot 1 are the top 12 teams in the FIFA World Rankings anyway.
All other pots are determined by the FIFA World Rankings.
UNL Quarterfinal teams appear as winner/loser ties (more information to come).
How does the draw take place?
It’s a bit complicated, so stay with us.
In addition to the eight teams present in the Pot 1 UNL QFs, there are two, Austria and Belgium, who will play promotion/relegation playoffs (PO) in March. Only England and Switzerland will not need a free month of March.
In pots 2, 3 and 4, 14 countries appear in the OPs in March.
In the original draw rules, all teams to play POs were to be prioritized into a group of four. FIFA updated the regulations at the end of November to remove this clause. This was deemed unfair because the PO teams from Pots 2, 3 and 4 were going to be forced into tougher groups – potentially against the UNL QF winners from Pot 1 and other high ranking PO teams from the other pots .
This is not such good news for the six teams in Pot 2 who do not need POs, as the old rules guaranteed that they would go to a group of five and automatically avoid the four strongest countries in as winners of the UNL QF.
Here’s what we know for sure as the draw begins:
– The four UNL QF winners must be divided into groups of four
– A group of five can only contain one loser UNL QF or PO team.
The draw begins with all teams from Pot 1 to Pot 5. Groups of four teams (A through F) are filled first, subject to the draw conditions for UNL teams.
What else should we pay attention to?
Jar 1
England and Switzerland are not guaranteed to be in a group of five, but the probability is 75%. There are eight possible groups for them, and only two contain four teams.
Pot 2
Six non-PO: Sweden, Wales, Poland, Romania, Czechia, Norway
Six OPs: Ukraine, Türkiye, Hungary, Serbia, Greece, Slovakia
As a group of five can only contain one PO team, what happens to England and Switzerland is the deciding factor.
In the unlikely event that England and Switzerland find themselves in a group of four teams, all PO teams in Pot 2 must be placed in a group of four, and all non-PO teams in Pot 2 in a group of five.
If England and Switzerland are in a group of four, that would leave only one group of four possible for the non-PO teams.
If England and Switzerland are both in a group of four, that leaves two possible groups in a group of four for non-PO teams.
Jar 3
Seven non-PO: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Israel, Montenegro, Northern Ireland, North Macedonia
Five OPs: Scotland, Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Georgia, Iceland
By the time we get to pot 3, it’s possible that all groups of five teams already have a PO team, which automatically places the five PO teams in that pot into a group of four.
Pot 4:
Twelve non-PO: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cyprus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg
Three OPs: Armenia, Bulgaria, Kosovo
There is an even lower chance that a five-team field will be available for the three PO teams in this pot.
The UNL PO teams in Pot 5 will not play their ties until March 2026 and are therefore not affected for the World Cup draw.
How will it play out for the UEFA Nations League QF winners?
As the UNL quarter-finals take place in March, it will not be known until then which four countries should have the month of June free for the final and be part of a group of four.
So, four groups will have the winners of a UNL quarterfinal, and four groups the losers of a UNL quarterfinal, as placeholders, as indicated in the pots.
This means eight World Cup groups will not know their Pot 1 opponents until March.
Quarter-finals
Netherlands vs Spain
Croatia vs France
Denmark vs. Portugal
Italy vs. Germany
What is the format for European qualifying for the World Cup?
There are 54 nations active in UEFA. The 55th, Russia, will not participate due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The 54 teams will be divided into 12 groups: six will comprise five countries and six will comprise four nations.
When are the games played?
There are 10 international dates, in pairs in March, June, September, October and November.
Teams forming a group of five will begin qualifying in March. However, if a group of five teams contains a UNL QF or PO team, they must have open dates in March. The other countries will have two free dates for international friendly matches.
The teams divided into groups of four will begin qualifying in September and the dates of March and June will be free for UNL QF, PO or international friendly matches.
How many European teams qualify for the expanded World Cup?
Under the old format, UEFA offered 13 nations. This increases by three to 16 for the 2026 edition.
How do teams qualify for the World Cup?
The 12 group winners advance directly to the World Cup.
The 12 finalists will advance to the playoffs, joined by four teams from the last edition of the UEFA Nations League, to battle it out for the final four places.
How do UEFA Nations League teams qualify for World Cup qualifiers?
The 14 group winners of the 2024 edition of UNL were ranked from Nations League A to League D. The top four UNL group winners who do not finish among the top two in their group of qualifying for the World Cup will benefit from a play-off.
The order of priority for the four World Cup playoff spots is as follows:
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France
England
Norway
Wales
Czechia
Romania
Suede
North Macedonia
Northern Ireland
Moldova
San Marino
Of the 14 teams that won their UNL group, 10 of them are in pot 1 or 2 for the draw – so, in the standings, they would finish in the top two of their group. If that happens, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, Moldova and San Marino would secure a playoff spot.
If, after reviewing all group winners, there are still available playoff spots, the ranking reverts to the overall UNL League standings, meaning it extends to the entire League A rather than all the finalists in the group.
How are the World Cup qualifiers going?
Teams will be seeded based on their performance for the one-way matches to be played in March 2026.
Hat 1: World Cup qualifying group runner-up with top four records
Pot 2: As above, teams fifth to eighth
Pot 3: As above, teams ninth through 12th
Hat 4: UEFA Nations League teams
Semi-finals:
Pot 1 versus I can 4
Pot 2 versus I can 3
The highest ranked teams will be at home in the semi-finals.
The winners will advance to the final, with a draw made in advance to determine which team will be at home.
The winners of the four playoff finals qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
