• What: Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic
• When: 2 p.m. Saturday
• Or: Breslin Center
• Television/Radio: FS1/Spartan Sports Network Radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 384 (MSU broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 9-2 and is ranked No. 19 in the Coaches Poll, No. 20 in the Associated Press Poll and No. 17 on the college basketball analytics site Kenpom. com. Florida Atlantic is 7-5 and unranked in either major poll. The Owls are No. 91 on Kenpom.com.
• Projected betting line: MSU-13
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 716-297 in his 30th season as head coach, all with the Spartans. Florida Atlantic — John Jakus is 7-5 in his first season as a collegiate head coach, after spending the last seven seasons as an assistant at Baylor.
• Series: MSU won the only previous meeting, 82-55, in November 2015. The two teams nearly met in the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament two years ago, but MSU lost to Kansas State in overtime, preventing the matchup . FAU then beat Kansas State to reach the Final Four.
Projected compositions
MSU
C (10) Szymón Zapala (7-0) 5.4
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.9
L (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.4
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.4
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.3
FAU
C (8) Matas Vokietaitis (7-0) 10.0
PF (18) Baba Miller (6-11) 10.9
SF (0) Ken Evans (6-5) 8.8
L (2) Leland Walker (6-1) 11.0
PG (24) KyKy Tandy (6-2) 9.3
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a 77-58 victory over Oakland on Tuesday night in Detroit, their fourth straight victory. After the FAU game, they will have one more game – Dec. 30 at home against Dwayne Stephens and Western Michigan – before returning to Big Ten play in January. MSU wins in part because of free throws and rebounds. MSU is shooting 80.6% from the line and is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, garnering 37.8% of offensive rebound opportunities, while allowing opponents only 23.2% of theirs, which which is the eighth best in the country. MSU is one of 13 Power Four conference schools with seven players averaging at least 20 minutes per game. This is the fifth time an Izzo team has had this kind of depth. Three of the other four seasons ended in the Final Four (1999, 2010, 2019).
• FAU update: This is an entirely different FAU team and program than the one that made the Final Four two years ago — in part because their coach, Dusty May, is now Michigan’s coach. Junior Tre Carroll, who comes off the bench averaging about 11 points per game, is the only remaining player on this team. This is still a very good offensive team, with a new coach in John Jakus whose strength lies in this side of the field. FAU has solid Kenpom wins this season against Oklahoma State and Liberty, with losses to Seton Hall, Charleston, Central Florida, Drake and Florida Gulf Coast all by single digits.
• Correspondence analysis: From a size and talent standpoint pound-for-pound, FAU looks like a major conference team. The Owls start 7-foot Matas Vokietaitis and 6-foot-11 Baba Miller, a transfer from Florida State, on their top line. Miller is a face-up offensive player and a good outside shooter and could be a chore for MSU. The Owls have several other good and capable outside shooters, including forward Kaleb Glenn, their leading scorer, and guards KyKy Tandy and Ken Evans Jr., who are volume shooters. They have depth, size on the wing and also bring a few scorers off the bench. FAU’s weakness is on the defensive end, where they don’t always get back in transition and don’t particularly defend the 3-point line. While the Owls shoot 37.1% as a team from beyond the arc, they allow their opponents to shoot a whopping 39.8%, which ranks them 356th out of 364 teams playing basketball in the Division I.
RELATED: Couch: Is Michigan State men’s basketball back? The numbers suggest MSU’s startup is real
• Prediction: FAU will test MSU defensively in several ways. But if the Spartans continue to limit second-chance opportunities on the glass and push the pace, and if they hit open shots — and they will get open looks — they should be fine.
• Do it: MSU 85, FAU 75
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article was originally published in the Lansing State Journal: MSU vs. Florida Atlantic Basketball: Prediction, Preview, How to Watch
