Two teams in identical circumstances will face off on Tuesday at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah, when the Texas Tech basketball team visits BYU at 8 p.m. on ESPN+.
The Red Raiders and Cougars have the exact same records of 10-3 overall and 1-1 in Big 12 Conference games. However, the teams’ recent outings have gone very differently. Texas Tech won its first game in the Beehive State by defeating Utah 93-65. Meanwhile, in Houston, the Cougars were stifled in an 86-55 drubbing at the hands of the Houston Cougars.
It might be a little premature to look at the NCAA Tournament odds right now, but neither team wants to fall into a 1-2 hole early in conference play. This is especially true for Texas Tech, which is scheduled to face Iowa State, Arizona and Cincinnati – all teams picked ahead of them in the preseason poll – with a Kansas State road trip in between at over the next few weeks.
Winning in Provo isn’t easy, so how can the Red Raiders get the job done?
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Texas Tech basketball vs. BYU: scouting report
Texas Tech won both matchups with BYU last season, although the Cougars underwent a slight facelift this offseason. Head coach Mark Pope left for Kentucky, which brought Kevin Young of the NBA’s Phoenix Suns to Provo to take over the program.
So far this season, BYU and Texas Tech have been pretty identical. Besides their records, the Cougars and Red Raiders are both looking for marquee wins, having lost their only non-conference games to power conference opponents.
The Cougars have four players averaging double figures, led by Richie Saunders with 13.5 points per game. He shoots 41% from 3 points.
BYU doesn’t have the same sparkling offensive numbers as last year, but it leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin, rebound defense and is second in total rebounds. The Cougars also lead the conference in 3-pointers per game at 10.9.
Look for the 3-point shot to be heavily featured here. Texas Tech is second in the conference shooting 39.7 percent from deep. BYU is fifth (36.2%) but the Cougars are making 48.6% of their total shots from beyond the arc.
Players to watch: Texas Tech’s JT Toppin and BYU’s Egor Demin
Texas Tech will have to fight on the glass to come away with a win here, which highlights JT Toppin for several reasons.
Toppin struggled early in both halves against Utah, putting him on the bench as Tech began to pull away. He was a good few minutes late, but the final result was not in question. Having missed four games in December, Toppin doesn’t qualify for the Big 12 statistical leaders (for whatever reason), but would be third in the conference in rebounding and second in scoring.
The tech big man also has NBA draft hopes for 2025, as does BYU’s Ego Demin. The 6-foot-9 Russian freshman primarily plays point guard for the Cougars and is Projecting to be a Top 5 pick through his two months of college ball. James Fletcher III from On3 Demin is fourth overall and Toppin 19th in his latest mock draft.
Much like Toppin, Demin has missed BYU’s recent non-conference games and his production has declined significantly in the few games he has played recently. His last five games have all been against power conference opponents and Demin is shooting just 25% from the field in those contests. Demin hasn’t made a 3-pointer or reached double-digit scoring in each of his last four.
Scouts will definitely check this one out. Demin probably doesn’t have too many concerns about his stock, but Toppin could rise with a strong performance on the road in a hostile environment.
Results of the Big 12 Conference early results
The first week of Big 12 Conference play had some surprising results. Most notable is the margin of victory and where these lopsided matches were played.
Only 14 of the 124 league matches played last year were decided by 20 points or more and only two of those 14 were won by away teams. Already this week, seven games have been decided by 20 or more with three teams doing the work in opposing territory.
Score prediction: BYU 79, Texas Tech 72
Conclusion: Texas Tech impressed on Saturday, but Utah is not the same caliber of team as BYU. The Red Raiders will have to account for everyone on the field with the Cougars’ scoring depth, and winning in Provo is really hard to do.
This article was originally published in the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Scouting report and score predictions as Texas Tech basketball visits BYU
