And then there were eight. The 2025 NFL The playoff picture was reduced from 14 teams to eight throughout Wild Card Weekend, and now we have our eyes on the Divisional Round, meaning the No. 1 seeds will return and start their campaign for Super Bowl title.
As you might expect, Wild Card Weekend was just that: wild. While everyone – including yours truly – expected the Chargers to take the road victory in Houston, the Texans came roaring in with a dog win at home. Meanwhile, the Commanders prevailed in the playoffs against the Buccaneers, continuing Jayden Daniels’ magical rookie season. Those were two of my straight and ATS losses in the playoffs, but it was a solid performance overall, going 3-3 ATS and 4-2 SU for the weekend.
We will look to do even more as we continue through the playoffs.
NFL season record
2025 playoffs
ATS: 3-3
M.L.: 4-2
2024 regular season
ATS Locks of the Week: 38-44-2
ATS: 131-135-6
M.L.: 178-94
All NFL Odds via SportsLine Consensus
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, streaming on fubo)
The Kansas City Chiefs have perplexed us all season. Despite just one loss on their resume, many questions have been asked about whether this is a club that truly has the legs to make a deep playoff run. Well, I do. This is a team led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, who have been there and won. During his career, Mahomes dominated the divisional round, owning a 6-0 record while accounting for 302.2 total yards per game, 16 total touchdowns and no turnovers. This is when he officially flips the switch and I expect the Chiefs to look like a powerhouse, especially after this extended 20+ day break. Even though Houston rallied after a slow start against the Chargers, I still have doubts about their ability to defeat a legitimate Super Bowl contender like they will face here in the Chiefs.
Projected Scores: Chiefs 30, Texans 20
The choice: Chiefs -8
Washington Commanders (6) vs. Detroit Lions (1)
- Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo)
The Commanders have been one of the most entertaining stories in the NFL this season and are a dangerous team to face. Even when they seem dead in the water, Jayden Daniels is able to propel his team to victory. Washington should be a playoff threat for years to come, but I think their story ends in Detroit. The key angle here is the Lions’ ability to pound the football down the field, especially since they are close to getting David Montgomery back. The Commanders have been among the worst rushing defenses in the NFL this season, which plays directly into the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery. If they are successful on the field, it not only helps the offense find its way down the field, but it also keeps Daniels on the sideline.
Meanwhile, when the Commanders are on the attack, the Lions have the tools to slow them down. Aaron Glenn’s defense is #1 in the league on third down, and Amik Robertson just showed us in Week 18 against Minnesota against Justin Jefferson that he’s capable of stopping a top receiving option like Terry McLaurin.
Projected Scores: Lions 33, Commanders 21
The choice: Lions -9.5
- Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC, stream on fubo)
There’s something about this Rams team that should make anyone left in the playoffs a little nervous, especially the Eagles, who are expected to host them in Philadelphia this weekend. Offensively, Los Angeles poses a lot of problems for what is admittedly a solid Eagles defense. When they get into range, Kyren Williams has a nose for the end zone on the ground, and Matthew Stafford has been playing hyper-efficient football lately. It doesn’t hurt that he has one of the NFL’s best wide receiver duos in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at his disposal.
More importantly, though, the Rams defense is red hot. The unit is coming off a nine-sack performance in the wild-card round and has held opponents from scoring double-digit points in their last four games with all of their starters (excluding Week 18 ). Philadelphia poses just as many problems on both sides of the ball, but I think Sean McVay will come up with a game plan that will put the Eagles on the ropes and at the very least cover them. This season the Rams are 5-3 ATS on the road, so we like the points here and will also back them to pull off an upset with an outright victory.
Projected Scores: Rams 27, Eagles 24
The choice: Rams +6
This is a heavyweight battle that should be fascinating to watch unfold. Remarkably, oddsmakers have the Bills as a home underdog at Highmark Stadium. While shocking at first glance, I think it’s justified because the Ravens are a force right now. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as a running duo in the backfield was built for playoff games like this. This is also a favorable matchup as the Bills are allowing 4.5 yards per carry this season, which ranks them in the bottom half of the league. While Jackson and Henry rightfully take up the lion’s share of the attention, do you know who the No. 1 defense, total defense, and third-down defense are in the NFL since Week 11? Baltimore. Their defensive resurgence is what positions them as true Super Bowl contenders and living to get out of Buffalo with their ticket stamped to the AFC Championship.
Projected Scores: Ravens 27, Bills 23
The choice: Crows -1
