A great 4-1 ATS week for us in Week 17. The primetime favorites came out on top for us. Joe Burrow beat Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, then the Buffalo Bills took out the New York Jets. I was with the Indianapolis Colts covering eight runs against the New York Giants, which was clearly a mistake.
Week 18 is like Week 1. There are opportunities to find value, but at the same time you can’t be completely sure of anything. How will the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups perform against the Broncos? Are the Baltimore Ravens really going to cover 18 points against the Cleveland Browns? Here’s what I think for Week 18. As always, thanks to the CBS Sports Research team for making me look smart.
Odds from SportsLine consensus
Top five picks Record ATS: 38-40-2
Overall record against the ATS: 115-137-4
Live record: 168-88
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bills aren’t expected to play many of their starters all game, but I’m not sure that matters. The Patriots stayed close with Buffalo a few weeks ago, losing by three points, but keep in mind that the Patriots currently hold the 2025 No. 1 overall pick. NFL Draft. Don’t waste this on a meaningless game! The Patriots don’t need a quarterback, so New England could select Travis Hunter or trade the pick for a good returner.
I tried to root for the Patriots as home underdogs last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, but they were destroyed 40-7. Maybe this defense can make people believe that Mitch Trubisky is a franchise quarterback.
The choice: Patriots -2.5
Projected score: Patriots 23-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans will face Mason Rudolph and the Mayo God on Sunday, and let me tell you, this is a Will Levis legacy game waiting to happen. No, I don’t think he’s the long-term answer in Tennessee, but he’s going to come out firing in the regular season finale. The first time Levis threw the ball while carrying the Houston Oilers running backs, he threw for four touchdowns in a surprise home victory.
Titans fans were excited to move up to No. 2 in the draft order since landing Shedeur Sanders becomes more likely. Levis will spoil that by throwing two touchdowns in a win over the rival Texans. Yes, I am aware that the Titans are the worst NFL team to bet on since at least 1970, but this specific matchup is extremely important to ownership.
The choice: Titan +1
Projected score: Titans 20-16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubotry for free)
It’s a big number, but I think it’s justified. Green Bay wants to build momentum with a home win against a divisional opponent, while the Bears are very ready for this season to end. Did you watch Chicago’s 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week? I hope not. It was horrible. The weather played a role in the outcome, but the Bears offense recorded just 179 total yards, while Caleb Williams threw for 122 yards and an interception.
This is the opportunity for the Packers to establish themselves as the Super Bowl sleepers, many thought they were entering this season. The Packers’ five losses this year have come by a total of 22 points, and all have come against teams that have won at least 13 games.
The choice: Packers -10
Projected score: Packers 24-13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubotry for free)
It would cost me more money to Uber eat a Chick-fil-A sandwich at home than it would to buy a ticket to that Colts game. Yes, I checked. The fans are outraged, and they probably should be. After Indy’s embarrassing 45-33 loss to the Giants, I’d say general manager Chris Ballard is definitely in the hot seat. This whole defense should also be on the hot seat.
The Jaguars are obviously not a powerhouse, but this team still plays hard. Every game they’ve played since Nov. 17 has ended by just one score. Mac Jones does a good job getting the ball to rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who I think has a huge afternoon on Sunday. The Jaguars upset the Colts in a surprisingly high-scoring game.
The choice: Jaguar +4.5
Projected score: Jaguar 30-27
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubotry for free)
The game of the week! Ben Johnson’s offense looks incredible, but this Lions defense is worth worrying about. Detroit allowed 7.4 yards per play in December. This is the most yards per play that a team has allowed during the month of December in the Super Bowl era. The Lions ranked last or second-to-last in points per game (32.5), yards allowed per game (428.5) and passing yards allowed per game (321) last month.
It’s difficult, because I think the Lions would be my Super Bowl choose if we were playing “Madden” and injuries were disabled. Detroit has five Week 1 defensive starters on injured reserve, which would be the most of any team in a playoff game since 1970.
The Lions lost a big home game to Buffalo, and I see the same thing happening against Minnesota. Sam Darnold is in fine form after throwing for a career-high 377 passing yards against the Packers. In a shocking turn of events, it’s the Vikings who get the bye in the first round of the NFC.
The choice: Vikings +3
Projected score: Vikings 40-33
