Southern Cal head coach Lindsay Gottlieb collected his team from the locker room. Although the Trojans fell one win short of their first Final Four since 1986, Gottlieb’s message to the group that elevated USC to the national stage was positive. Such an explosion was no small matter, she told them last April.
“The way the country is going to view USC women’s basketball is really different than it was four months ago,” Gottlieb said after an 80-73 loss to Connecticut in the regional final from Portland 3. “It’s a powerful thing for the group here.”
USC (10-1) and UConn (10-1), led by national player of the year contenders JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers, respectively, will meet again Saturday (Fox, 8 p.m. ET) in a rematch Elite Eight in less serious circumstances. . While there is no championship on the line (at least not yet), it will contribute significantly to the NCAA tournament seeding. And for USC, it will serve as a barometer of how far its program has come since returning to the scene that UConn has long dominated.
The No. 7 Trojans, unlike this time a year ago, are national championship contenders fueled by second-year generational star Watkins and a transfer package she has compared to Marvel’s Avengers. They rank fourth in net rating, powered by a third-best defensive effort (67.1). Few teams are better at protecting the rim or sharing the ball. Their only loss was to the defensive threat of Notre Dame, a devastating blow on their floor that they can attribute to a lack of early chemistry.
While USC has been treading water on the West Coast for the past three decades, UConn has swum marathons around everyone. The country views the Huskies as perennial title contenders who should do nothing but hoist the final trophy in April. A 14-year Final Four streak and 11 national championships will do that to a program. Except they haven’t won since 2016, and in Storrs, Conn., it’s been ages and a day.
Powered by senior Bueckers, the No. 4 Huskies are once again among the title favorites if their pack of top recruits remains healthy. This was a difficult feat. Continuing the team’s health issues over the past five seasons, shooting guard Azzi Fudd missed two games – including its only loss to Notre Dame – with a sprained knee. She prepares daily for the game against USC.
It’s the best shooting team in Division I (51.6 percent overall, 60.6 percent inside the arc) and second in points per play (1.03), but defensively , they were slightly late. However, the Huskies have faced slightly tougher opponents than USC, picking up wins against ranked teams from North Carolina, Ole Miss and Louisville and against previously ranked Iowa State.
The game features four of the five No. 1 recruits still in college: forward Sarah Strong (UConn ’24), Watkins (USC ’23), Fudd (UConn ’21) and Bueckers (UConn ’20). Center Lauren Betts (Stanford ’22) is at No. 1 for UCLA.
Final Four preview?
This is the second collegiate meeting between preseason AP All-America guards Bueckers and Watkins. This could be the latter, unless they end up in the NCAA tournament. UConn is third and USC seventh in the NET rankings, the main metric of the NCAA Tournament women’s basketball selection committee. UConn is the No. 2 seed in Spokane Region 4 with Texas, and USC is the No. 3 seed in Spokane Region 1 with UCLA, according to ESPN bracketology projections released Tuesday. They would meet in the Final Four.
Bueckers said this was her final year at Connecticut before becoming the projected No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft. Watkins, who talent evaluators say is ready for the WNBA, isn’t age eligible until 2027.
Both finished with comparable stat lines in the Elite Eight game, although Bueckers was more efficient with his 28 points (11 of 23, 3 of 6 3s). Watkins scored a game-high 29 (9 of 25, 2 of 6 3s). UConn’s Aaliyah Edwards and USC’s McKenzie Forbes, who each scored 24 points in that meeting, were drafted into the WNBA.
Player of the Year race
The match will also serve as the first reference in the national player of the year conversation. Notre Dame sophomore Hannah Hidalgo, due to her two-way performances in games against Bueckers and Watkins, has an early advantage. By Sunday, all three will have competed to establish the non-conference decision-makers’ bases.
Bueckers became the first freshman to win Major National Player of the Year, earning Wooden, Naismith, AP and USBWA honors in 2021. She is averaging 20.6 points this season with high efficiency in career (65.9 EFG%). The rest of her per-game stats are down slightly with more elite help around her than she’s had since that award-winning Final Four appearance.
Watkins, who set the scoring record as a freshman, is averaging 24.7 points with a 51.5 percent completion percentage. His production also declined slightly with a lofty roster that led USC to its highest AP ranking since 1986 and by far its highest over the past four decades.
UConn’s Fudd (10 ppg, 50 FG% in 19.2 mpg/five games) and USC transfers Kiki Iriafen (18.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and Talia von Oelhoffen (3.5 apg, 2.1 spg ) are also on the Wooden Award’s preseason top 50 players list. Strong, UConn’s second-leading scorer and 3-point threat, will likely debut on the midseason roster in January.
