Ranking the Premier League race for Champions League places: who could surprise Man City and Tottenham?

Have you looked at the Premier League table recently? Not quite at the top, where you have this curious feeling that maybe Liverpool won’t run away like you thought. Nor the bottom, where Southampton are really fleeing him, is his future involvement in the elite.

No, just in the middle. Watch this for a blockage. Between Nottingham Forest, fourth, and Manchester United, 13th, there are only six points. Even Arsenal, who would naturally continue to look at the teams above them rather than below, only have a two-point advantage over Forest. Almost any team could be drawn into the mix.

Or, to look at it another way, a fortnight before the league’s halfway point, almost half the competition can still dream of the Champions League anthem blaring at home in 2025-26. After all, there should be enough space to move around. English teams’ strong performances in continental football so far this season have given them a huge lead in the race for a fifth place in the Champions League – 8.9% over Italy. Look, it’s more impressive than it seems. It would take several Manchester City-level collapses over the last six weeks to let that slide.

The battle for the top five is now on. But who will give up these places in May? Let’s look at the 10 in the mix. Arsenal, they are out. If they are third after so much has gone wrong for them in the last 16 games, you have to assume they will come clear when their fitness returns and/or the ball starts going into the net.

1. The favorites: Manchester City and Tottenham

Look, it’s pretty horrible. Since the start of the November crisis – now the second month – Manchester City’s comeback has been putrid. Want to get an idea of ​​how serious the situation is? In the last seven games, Pep Guardiola’s eternal champions have collected as many points. Southampton, the team who decided their own relegation was a price worth paying only to discover that Russell Martin’s approach really doesn’t work with inferior talent in the Premier League. .

It’s bad, really bad, but there’s also a fair amount of unhappiness in these struggles, even if you put aside the injuries and evaluate City based on the talent they field. Take Amad Diallo’s match winner at the Etihad last weekend. Ruben Dias made the mistake of falling a little behind the rest of his defense but the score still took a delicate clip from Lisandro Martinez, Amad adjusting his run perfectly, his first touch elegantly lobbing Ederson and a finish which found the gap between two recovering defenders. These are City’s six weeks in microcosm. That and the chances of being rejected on the other end of the line.

They may have the worst points return in the league since the start of November, but in terms of non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) they are just a bit below average. A little better fitness, better finishing from Erling Haaland, a significant addition or two in January: it’s fair to expect most of these to happen. If so, City will be comfortably in the top five.

As for Tottenham, there is not much to say. Just look at this column to the right of the points. There can’t be many teams with a goal difference better than plus one per game that find themselves clinging to a top 10 spot heading into the end of the year. If Spurs brush off the bad teams and lose by a few goals to the good ones, you have to assume they’ll pick up a few more points in that second category.

2. Serious contenders: Aston Villa and Bournemouth

Much like Spurs, Aston Villa are probably who you thought they would be at the start of the season. A little undernourished at the top of the pitch, short on a few game-changers deep in their depth chart after a summer of deals and PSR deals, but Villa’s biggest problems appear to be at the other end of the land.

Some of them could be endemic. Unai Emery’s side have never been very good at holding leads and in recent weeks they have lost leads to Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. It also doesn’t help that “World No.1” Emiliano Martinez has had a pretty disappointing season between the posts, conceding 24 in 15.5 games. A goalkeeper who has just done who saves against Forest probably hasn’t lost any of his quality, this shot map above alluding to the fact that Martinez was made by shots like those of Matheus Cunha and Dwight McNeil, barely rockets but daisy cutters that flew just beyond the Argentinian’s reach.

If Villa were where they were expected to be, only the most optimistic Bournemouth fans could have imagined them finishing seventh. Don’t be surprised, however, if Andoni Iraola’s side are even better in five months’ time. Include penalties in the mix and their xG difference of 12.57 is third best in the league, twice as good as some of the teams around them.

A recruiting success rate of Taylor Swift’s means there really aren’t many problem areas on the team; If Evanilson has an off night, Enes Unal can salvage a point against West Ham. Unless you’re too high on Antoine Semenyo, you’d probably conclude that Bournemouth don’t have the guy in an offensive sense like their presumed rivals, but having a lot of good strikers but no great strikers is not a great agony. And anyway, maybe Iraola is that guy anyway.

3. Upper limit of the midtable: Nottingham Forest and Fulham

Two fairly similar teams destined for two fairly similar places in the table – in itself a hugely impressive feat for teams many would have judged to be closer to the relegation zone than European places – Nottingham Forest and Fulham made exhilarating debuts until 2024. -25 in quite different ways.

Nuno Espirito Santo mocks your concepts of defensive possession. What about defending, followed by short, sharp bursts of possession where his attackers tear you to shreds on the break? The age of social media seems to have led to the belief that there is an aesthetically purer form of play. Go ask Southampton fans about this. With sturdy defenders and the explosive on-field abilities of Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi et al, Forest play in a way perfectly suited to their talent.

Fulham too. The cadre of technical midfielders they recruited from Arsenal’s Hale End academy suit Marco Silva perfectly, as does the one man on the left flank in Antonee Robinson. It’s unclear exactly how they’re holding up so well out of possession now that Joao Palhinha is gone, but they are, allowing a perfectly reasonable 20.48 xG so far this season.

It’s just that none of these teams have the talent or underlying metrics of a true top-four (now five) blue team. They’re doing well, with about average hitting over the last 16 games. Keep it up for another 22 teams and one of those teams, maybe both, will have European football to look forward to. Maybe not the Champions League.

4. I guess maybe: Newcastle United and Manchester United

Ruben Amorim arrived with a pretty solid idea of ​​Manchester United’s situation… and they’re not a team that can realistically challenge for Champions League places. He plays with his system, even if the personnel doesn’t really suit him, he is perfectly prepared to sacrifice the immediate returns that Marcus Rashford could offer him as he tries to build for the long term. The fact that Amorim speaks about himself under pressure — “if we don’t win, the coach leaves and the player leaves,” he said earlier this month — – rather indicates that it is not the same at all.

United could be in the top five. There is clearly talent on their team. You would think, however, that this would be a welcome but accidental consequence of Amorim being ahead of schedule in its rebuilding.

By contrast, Newcastle feel very far from where they appeared to be heading when they reached the Champions League in 2023. All the defensive wizardry they conjured up was that of Sven Botman, edging closer to recovering from a ACL injury he suffered. March? If so, it will take some time for them to get back into it. There are superstars in this line-up – Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimaraes – but PSR pressures and poor recruitment mean they are also surrounded by fairly ordinary players. What does that give? Eighth in xG difference, eighth in xG allowed, eighth in xG per shot, seventh in expected assists, ninth in xG. Yeah, they finished eighth.

5. You don’t really belong here, do you: Brighton and Brentford

Fortress G-Tech means Brentford are in the race for European places, but the defensive muscle that was their calling card in the past appears to have faded. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa cover up many problems later. These are top-level talents and this team really shouldn’t worry about drifting towards the relegation zone. That in itself is quite an achievement, although it’s par for the course for Thomas Frank, who has had to adjust to life without star talent David Raya and latterly Ivan Toney.

As for Brighton, it is unimaginable that they are so high. Watch them in action and they are often overwhelmed in midfield, their high line increasingly breached during a run of four top-flight games without a win. Their third end talent is still exciting, but he has to cover the defense.

Of course, neither side should be particularly perturbed if they were to stray. Both are in transition, Brighton in particular are still rebuilding the superstar midfielder that was taken from them in the summer of 2023. Rebuilding without actually being under threat of relegation is not an easy task for any team outside of six big ones. Brentford and Brighton make it look that way and, thanks to their eye for talent, it may not be long before they become genuine European contenders again.