When I worked alongside future Portland Trail Blazers assistant general manager Mike Schmitz, he had a saying:
“The evaluation usually comes back.”
What he meant was that even if it seems like the initial assessment is far from correct, there are usually aspects of that opinion that resurface.
This certainly proves true with Reed Sheppard.
Just two years ago, Sheppard was considered the local replacement for a John Calipari recruiting class that was the best in the country. Cal had three of the top five recruits in the country – Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw and DJ Wagner – as well as another top-25 prospect, Rob Dillingham. Sheppard, ranked 79th overall in the nation, was widely considered a multi-year college player, not only by the national media but also by Calipari and his staff.
Of course, this scenario quickly reversed when they all arrived in Lexington. Through his first six games at Kentucky, Sheppard led the nation in plus/minus, field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. He also ranked top 10 nationally in steal percentage and offensive rating.
While pretty much everyone expected these numbers to come back down to earth, that’s never really the case. He finished the season shooting over 52% from three-point range and was the only player in the country to record 145 assists, 80 steals and 75 three-pointers. He posted a true shooting percentage of 69.9%, sixth best overall in the country and best among high-level guards.
Sheppard went on to be the third pick in the draft, signed a four-year, $45 million contract and played in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas and has become a trending preseason pick for NBA Rookie of the Year.
Fast forward six months, and the Rockets assigned Sheppard to the G League on Monday. This followed averages of 3.3 points, 1.3 rebounds and 1.2 assists on 32.2% shooting from the floor and 27.9% shooting from three, as well as three DNPs in his four last matches.
So what part of the assessment came back? It starts with those shooting numbers.
During the summer before Sheppard’s junior season in high school, he shot 32.9% from three-point range on the Adidas 3SSB Tour, making an average of 2.3 of his 7 attempts per game. A year later, in his final basic season, he shot 30.9% from three in 19 games on tour, hitting 1.8 of his 5.8 attempts per game. During his senior year of high school, in the seven games captured by Synergy Sports, he shot 15 of 58 from three (34.9%).
In other words, Sheppard had never shot better than 35% from three at any high school before hitting a whopping 52% at Kentucky.
Even days before the draft, when scouts and analysts were touting Sheppard as a generational shooter, the variance in those numbers gave me pause, as seen in this clip from A Look at the College Basketball Podcast:
To be clear, our assessment of the high school was wrong. This became evident early in its first season and this remains apparent today – although it is not as wrong as it was six months ago.
While the numbers might suggest that last year was the exception and not the rule, it probably goes too far in the other direction. Before the draft, I thought Sheppard would become a very good shooter and NBA player, but not a historic player.
Likewise, while Sheppard’s defensive metrics at Kentucky were excellent, some overestimated his lateral quickness. He has great hands but lacks exceptional quickness or length, which limits him in some matchups.
Another factor to note: Sheppard’s minutes in Houston were primarily on the ball, which is consistent with his evaluation in high school as more of a combo guard than a true point guard. This stems from a relatively high turnover rate and greater comfort when not initiating every possession.
Context matters. Houston is now focused on winning. With a 24-12 record and second place in the Western Conference, their starting backcourt of Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green leads the team in minutes. Young players like Green (22), Alperen Sengun (22), Tari Eason (23), Jabari Smith (21) and Amen Thompson (21) balance a dual goal: winning now while developing for the future. ‘future. Sheppard and Cam Whitmore struggled to find their place in this dynamic.
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Still, this has no impact on Sheppard’s long-term prospects. He is likely to play a leading role for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, find his rhythm and return to Houston soon. Just look at his G League debut: 49 points on eight three-pointers, with six assists, five rebounds and three steals.
It may be a lower level of competition with more freedom, but that’s the benefit. Tuesday’s game, and perhaps Thursday’s as well, offers Sheppard a great opportunity to regain his rhythm and confidence. Subsequently, with the Vipers on a six-day layoff, Sheppard could be back with the Rockets in less than a week.
