Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against Nikola Jokić: Who is the MVP?

A result in the lead at the beginning of March does not decide in itself something as massive as which player will eventually win the prize of the most precious player in the NBA. He canHowever, offer an opportunity to make a categorical declaration. As, for example, the cap of your 11th 40 -point match at the head of the league From the season with a race at the end of the quarter to help transform a tight match into another eruption victory.

Many experts took the opportunity on Sunday to affirm that the Thunder’s marquee victory against the Nuggets almost obtained the first MVP trophy of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s career. And if Nikola Jokić returns to serve Monday evening, when Oklahoma City and Denver play the second half of their set of two games, with a game of monsters leading to a victory for Nuggets, there is a good chance that many of these same experts will seize the opportunity to call in the other direction – or, at least, to declare the MVP race in the air and too close.

To a certain extent, it’s just the nature of contemporary comments. For the most part, however, it is also the natural growth of two incredible players having two incredible seasons and, in the process, by building two fucking good cases to explain why everyone should end up the price of the season.

The case for Gilgeous-Alexander

The case of Gilgeous-Alexander opens on a secular handle and easy to reach: the best player for the best team. Who – with apologies to the Cleveland horsemen, who enter the action of Monday on their second The sequence of 14 consecutive victories of the season, and with an NBA record of 54-10 – is the Thunder since the season in October.

Oklahoma City is 53-11, classifying the first four both END of the courtyard, with the league Best efficiency differentialThe highest net note in ERA of any team Since the 1996 bullsand the most important average margin of victory In the history of the NBA. Gilgeous -Aalexander opens the way, with an average of 32.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.8 interceptions per game, firing at 52.5% on the field, 37.2% on a fork of 3 points and 89.9% of the free throw line – good for a real percentage of shooting of 64.3%. The only other players to install numbers like that? Michael Jordan and James Harden.

Everything Oklahoma City built flows outside Gilgeous-Alexander, the league Primary source of dribbling penetration For five years of racing. His ability to go where he wants to the field when he wishes, to go to the cup and to finish at a high percentage, to stop on a ten and a rainfall in the mid -range, or to spray the ball to a teammate waiting to capitalize on the advantage he created, undoubtedly made SGA the top scorer of the game.

This also made him one of the most effective engines in the League effective provision as a whole. The Thunder scores 1.11 points by possession with a Pick-And-Roll SGA, 1.08 points per possession with SGA isolation and 1.13 points per possession with a Post-Up SGA, according to Synergy-Every 10 best points among high volume players. With Gilgeous-Aalexander on the field this season, Oklahoma City is on average 123.7 points per 100 possessions of timeless time, according to Clean the glass – A tick south of the best Cavs League Full season – While turning the ball over only 11.1% of their offensive games, the lowest rate in the league.

All in all, thunder blows the doors of adversaries by an obscene 16.8 points per 100 in the minutes of SGAThanks in part to their historically elite defense – a unit on which Gilgeous -Alexander conscientiously plays its role. It rarely corresponds to With the most dangerous perimeter players of adversaries, thanks to the armada of the excellent traffic jams (Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace) to the elimination of head coach Mark Daigneault. He does his job, however, the second row of the NBA fly and 11th in DETOURHold the opponents to 43.2% shooting (a TOP-20 Brand Among the players to contest at least 500 shots) and to establish the defender and the disruptor of the passage route, according to The bball indexGame graphics.

There is not really an excellent argument against the case of SGA. It’s just that there is Also A fairly unattainable case for the guy who won three of the last four MVP trophies.

The case for Jokić

Jokić is on the pace to be the third player never on average a triple-double For a full season, marking a career summit of 28.8 points per match to go with 12.9 rebounds, 10.5 assists and 1.8 interceptions per night. It does so with considerably higher efficiency than Oscar Robertson or Russell Westbrook: 57.4% in the field, a career summit of 43% on land of 3 points and 80.6% on the line of fault, totaling up to a percentage of shooting of 66%.

Only Two other players in the history of the NBA (Minimum 50 games played) have scored as effectively: the unanimous MVP Stephen Curry and Charles Barkley in 1988. Which, strangely, looks like a fairly fun approximation of what Jokić has become offensively – but extended to 6 feet 11 inches and also as perhaps the best passer in the world.

Only trae young has Creation of more points via assist that Jokić this season. When you add them to the points he scores himself and those he opens for his teammates with his screening, Jokić generates 66.1 Gargantuan points by 36 minutes of time, using the Points created metrics cooked by Zach KramNow from ESPN – 14 More par-36 than SGA.

Jokić assumes such an important offensive charge – first in the NBA in total key And Before Cour keys per match of a mile – largely because Denver really, Really needs him to do it.

With Jamal Murray, he has a hard time in the first 20 games before lighting him in early December, with Aaron Gordon (who left the early Sunday match with Right veal terress) missing more than 40% of the season with various leg injuries, and with no one saves the Russell Westbrook rejuvenated able to offer a lot of coherent shooting creation, the Nuggets have gone to mark a Burning 128.4 points by 100 with Jokić on the ground to one lamentable 103.8 points per 100 with him. In all, Denver was a huge 23.6 points per 100 best in the background of the Grand Guy – the The largest division on the field / field of any NBA player to record at least 1,000 minutes … and more double Sga’s on-off is divided (plus-11,3).

Even in the midst of all injuries and inconsistencies, Denver has the NBA second best offense And a clear note from the top-five is in a rhythm of 53 victories, and is projected has finishing with N ° 2 seed. And although you can argue that the success of the Thunder flows at least as much from this historic defense as from the magic of SGA with the ball, you can really not place the part of the credit lion for the success of the nuggets anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere anywhere any but in the hands capable of Jokić.

The MVP race is not over

This makes it a terribly narrow race – the one that a look at advanced statistics does not clarify exactly, because Gilgeous -Alexander and Jokić sit first and second in almost all the group alphabet number that the NBA Nerds have designed.

SGA has the advantage in more estimated victories and EPM, LeBron and LeBron win above replacement, earn actions and gain actions by 48 minutes, and the estimated version of the Raptor and Raptor de Fivethirtyeight won above the replacement. Jokić, in turn, is gaining value compared to the replacement player, at the Player’s efficiency rating, with the Plé-Minus box, with the drop of Opta, at the daily Darko of Kostya Medvedovsky, to net points of ESPN for 100 possessions and net points winning above the replacement and the XRAPM of Jeremias Engelmann.

It’s funny: despite their much demonstrated capacity to establish total control over almost all the games in which they play, it would be reasonable to say that, with a little over a month, nor Gilgeous-Alexander ni Jokić claimed MVP honors. Monday presents another opportunity for them to do so, because although a result in the lead in early March decides nothing in itself, can Leave a lasting impression in the minds of media voters who will fill their ballots in April.