I have already spoken about CC Sabathia here in his first year on the Hall of Fame ballot and he deserves it. The Big Man should be a Hall of Famer and I will vote for him as many times as it takes. Looking at the current ballot, there are two remaining starting pitchers who appear to deserve high consideration: Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle.
Let’s first talk about the direction the starting pitch takes, and then we’ll discuss the cases of Pettitte and Buehrle from that perspective.
Between the openers and the bullpen games, the numbers are going to be a little skewed, but we’re still going to take a look at the league averages of starting pitchers just to illustrate the direction things are heading. have been leading for some time now.
Here is the average innings per start over a decade at a time.
2024: 5.21
2014: 5.97
2004: 5.86
1994: 6.08
1984: 6.26
1974: 6.55
1964: 6.32
1954: 6.56
1944: 7.08
Now here is the number of pitchers to reach 200 innings by these same seasons.
2024: 4
2014: 34
2004: 42
1993 (1994 was a strike shortened): 52
1984:52
1974: 65
Beyond that, there were fewer teams and therefore fewer matches, but the idea is quite simple. Pitchers simply don’t have the ability to handle even the workloads they used to.
In the past, pitchers had more opportunities. Higher workloads allowed them to rack up higher win totals and much higher WAR accumulation. Sure, maybe facing hitters a third or fourth time in the order could have lowered things like ERA and WHIP, but the counting stats all add up. There were also more chances of strikeouts, but that is more than mitigated by the skyrocketing strikeout rate these days.
As with all Hall of Fame discussions, we must consider the full context behind the numbers and find a balance.
I’m not as worried about the elite level of pitchers. The generation that is about to age out of the league currently includes surefire Hall of Famers like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke (who is already retired). Once you move on to Chris Sale and Cole Hamels, it’s tougher navigation. Do you know who the highest ranked active pitcher in JAWS is that I haven’t named? It’s Gerrit Cole. But he ranks 152nd all time. Next is Zack Wheeler at 196.
There are 66 Hall of Fame starting pitchers.
Remember that JAWS is heavily dependent on WAR and the workload there has a huge impact on the numbers. Even if we were going more old school, Cole has 153 wins and he’s 34 years old. A roller? He is also 34 years old and has only 103 career victories.
I’m not saying that Cole and Wheeler should definitely end up in Cooperstown, although I would say that Cole should already be considered a future Hall of Famer. I’m just illustrating that we probably need to relax the standards for Hall of Fame starting pitchers a bit, or we’re bound to hit a wall in the coming decades.
Note that I didn’t say to lower the standard in an extreme way. I’m still no on Felix Hernández despite his brilliant performance. I’m just saying we can relax things a little. The starting pitcher becomes less important, but the good guys remain the most important players on the field when they step on the mound. These are the main characters of the game.
All of this is worth considering before taking a look at Pettitte and Buehrle.
Mark Buehrle
The stable left hasn’t found much room in Hall’s vote so far. He appeared on the ballot four times and received 11%, 5.8%, 10.8% and 8.3% of the vote on those four occasions, respectively. Without a serious upward trend starting this year or next year, it won’t get in.
Over parts of 16 seasons, Buehrle was 214-160 with a 3.81 ERA (117 ERA+, which helps explain the incredibly offensive era in which he pitched), 1.28 WHIP and 1,870 strikeouts in 3,283 ⅓ innings. He was a first-line starter for the 2005 World Series champion White Sox. They won all three of his postseason starts and he also recorded a save. The five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover didn’t move past fifth place in Cy Young voting, but there’s plenty of room for all types of Hall of Famers and being a workaholic was Buehrle’s business card.
I wrote in more detail about him a few years agobut Buehrle was truly an all-time great workaholic. Here are the seasons with the most 200 innings in the 2000s:
1. Bührle, 14 years old
2. Verlander, 12 years old
3. James Shields, 10 years old
t4. Greinke, 9 years old
t4. Livan Hernández, 9 years old
t4. Javier Vázquez, 9 years old
He hit 200 innings every year of his career except his rookie year (when he debuted in July) and his final season, where he hit 198 ⅔. There is also this:
In fact, if we look at the most 200-inning seasons in a career ever, Buehrle is in good company. There are only 14 pitchers who have had 15 200-inning seasons. All but two (Jack Powell and Roger Clemens) are Hall of Famers (list here). And Buehrle had just four outs in his final season after reaching 200 for the 15th time. Those with exactly 14,200 innings seasons: Buehrle, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Jim Kaat, Robin Roberts, Early Wynn, Red Ruffing and Christy Mathewson. Everyone except Buehrle is already a Hall of Famer.
Even in an era when starters’ innings were starting to get depressed, Buehrle finished 99th all-time in innings. He is 93rd in wins. He was an outstanding fielder and threw two hits, including a perfect game.
Buehrle ranks 79th in JAWS, ahead of Hall of Famers Joe McGinnity, Whitey Ford, Jim Kaat, Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter and Bob Lemon. Some contemporary pitchers ranked around Buehrle are Sale, Hamels and…Andy Pettitte.
Andy Pettitte
Pettitte ranks 82nd in JAWS, ahead of all the Hall of Fame pitchers I just mentioned except McGinnity.
Over 18 seasons, Pettitte went 256-153 with a 3.85 ERA (117 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP and 2,448 strikeouts in 3,316 innings. The three-time All-Star finished in the top six in Cy Young voting five times, finishing second in 1996, when he led the league with 21 wins. Although he wasn’t as prolific a workhorse as Buehrle, Pettitte topped 200 innings 10 times and 185 three more times. He ranks 93rd in career innings pitched and 46th in strikeouts, although he was not considered a power pitcher.
There’s also a big playoff boost for Pettitte, who won five World Series rings and pitched eight Fall Classics, winning the 2001 ALCS MVP.
In fact, Pettitte is the all-time leader in playoff wins with 19 (Verlander is second with 17 and no one else has more than 15).
In his 44 postseason starts, Pettitte went 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA. Keep in mind that this was one of the greatest offensive periods in history. MLB history and, obviously, playoff teams are generally better offensive teams than the competition as a whole in the regular season.
Now there is the PED link. Petitte was featured in the Mitchell report and admitted to using HGH in 2002. However, he was never criticized once the league conducted the testing, and he played until 2013. Testing began in 2004.
It’s possible that the admission is part of the reason he hasn’t gained much traction in Hall of Fame voting so far. He had six tries and it went 9.9%, 11.3%, 13.7%, 10.7%, 17% and 13.5%.
I suspect, however, that there is more, with the body of work being less than overwhelming compared to former elite-level Hall of Fame starting pitchers and that position needs to lighten up.
If we take into account everything about starting pitchers and workload here and open the door for future inductees to this incredibly important position, it really seems like Buehrle and Pettitte both have a very strong case.
