Victor Wembanyama was, until the news on Thursday that he should miss the rest of the seasonA fatal lock to win the defensive player of the year.
He blocked 74 more shots than any other basketball player this season. He is one of the seven centers with more than 50 interceptions. Only four basketball players contest more shooting per game, and none of these four players defleuses even half more passes. It is rarely right to say that a price race is finished in February, but if Wembanyama remained healthy, he was going to win the defensive player of the year. Maybe unanimously.
Now, however, Wembanyama is not eligible for the price. His season ends with only 46 games played due to a blood clot in his right shoulder. This leaves him 19 games unless the minimum compulsory for eligibility.
Someone else will win the award. The question is now who.
Three trace effects
Sam Quinn
Wembanyama was so singularly dominant that he shaken most of the historical trends that tended to lead us to previous winners. With him now out of the photo, three trends are distinguished by the old winners to help us understand what the voters of this prize tend to seek:
- Defense team’s success. Each winner since 2008 has played for a defense among the first five. The Spurs were classified 19th. An exception would have been made for Wembanyama. Perhaps this opens the door to another possible exception, but without the exceptional statistical profile of Wembanyama, they would fight a difficult battle.
- Success of the team overall. In this same period since 2008, each winner played for an eliminatory team. The format of the playoffs has obviously changed since then, but it is difficult to imagine anyone outside the top 10 of his conference is disputed significantly for the price.
- Size. Only three players of perimeter won this century: Ron Artest, Kawhi Leonard and Marcus Smart. It is not impossible for a wing to win, but it is rare and would require an almost perfect CV.
To complicate the questions here, how many other elite defenders have already been excluded from eligibility. Chet Holmgren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Suggs are already out of course, and Anthony Davis will soon join them. The swimming pool is not as deep as it would usually be.
So who is still on the table?
The best candidates to win the defensive player of the year
According to Caesars Sportsbook, the favorites of bets are Jaren Jackson Jr. (+100) and Evan Mobley (+130). Already, the two challenge the defense rule among the first five. Jackson’s grizzles are seventh. Mobley riders rank eighth. But both check the requirements of the great man and play both to win teams.
Jackson Bord de Mobley in most counting statistics. He blocks more blows. It flies and diverts more bullets. The opponents draw a lower percentage against him at the edge. But Jackson does not really bounce back, and the statistical margins are much closer than they were two years ago. Mobley disputes more shots and is slightly better on the perimeter when asked to defend himself there. All-in-one measures show no significant difference between the two. They are rightly favored.
But we have not yet covered a single defense among the first five. The thunder classified n ° 1 is historic at this end of the soil. They lead the league in interceptions and deflections while ranking sixth in the two blocks and the disputed shots. They have the best defensive note of the last five years and lead the second place of the clippers of nearly four points per 100 possessions. They must have a candidate, right?
Well, Vegas has three to offer. Holmgren, Hartenstein and Alex Caruso came out. However, Lu sleeps (+2,200), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2,500) and Jalen Williams (+6000) are in.
Dort is the best defender of the three, frequently taking the most difficult match and making their lives miserable. There is a reason why he is nicknamed the “giving room”, after all. Gilgeous-Alexander is attacked on switches mainly due to the quality of his teammates, but he has held perfectly, and he accumulates valuable turnover statistics such as fleeting and deviations. Williams does a bit of everything and even played a center at the start of the season.
Of the three, sleeps is the best bet. Voters have focused on the award of a single team in the past. This is how Smart won in 2022. The Thunder could obtain this respect this year, and sleeps is widely recognized as the best defender in the perimeter of the team. Williams is too subtle and Gilgeous-Alexander is too well known for his attack.
Dyson Dyson Dyson Daniels is seated in third place in the table. However, his candidacy is faced with a number of serious problems at the moment. He plays for defense n ° 15 in the NbaFor example, and things should only become more difficult for Hawks without Jalen Johnson on the section. Daniels always lead the league in deviations and thefts, but the gaps are not as huge as they were in the past. And although Atlanta’s status as a game team is probably safe, Hawks are also less than 0,500 to 26-29.
If there is a long shot that makes sense, it is amen Thompson of the Rockets to +6000. Houston’s defense ranks fourth, but unlike Dort, Thompson does not face abrupt competition from his own teammates. Dillon Brooks could have a case all defense, but he is not at a distance at Thompson level, and Tari Eason does not play enough minutes to be seriously considered. Thompson can defend almost all positions and is the backbone of Nba The most surprising team of this season.
Look at these lines closely in the coming days and weeks. A favorite of heavy bets will soon emerge. For the moment, Vegas plays caution, giving Jackson, Mobley or other brands to immerse yourself in it and take a price that did not seem available 24 hours ago.
