The best week of real football is here. THE NFL The divisional round, while not as long as the wild-card round, typically features the four best matches of the season. And I don’t expect this week to be any different. We have an EPIC Ravens-Bills game, a lot of unknowns in the Texans-Chiefs game and I still think there’s a lot of potential shenanigans from bigger underdogs on the NFC side.
I also want to point out that there are still some interesting future bets you can make there. A Bills-Rams Super Bowl the matchup had odds of 60-1 heading into last weekend. With the Bills and Rams winning – both of whom looked very good in the opening weekend of the playoffs en route to dominant “home” wins – the number obviously went down, but 37- 1 is still good enough. You’re just asking them to each win two games.
One thing to keep in mind when betting on futures at this stage, however. You can also make a progressive parlay instead of betting on the actual match. I did a quick calculation using other games with similar money lines and based on hypothetical future matchups at FanDuel – if the Rams are +225 against the Lions (assuming they win) and the Bills are +106 against the Chiefs (assuming they win). win), you’d actually be better off running an “open” parlay with two extra spots for next week’s Championship Weekend games, because you’d end up going 41-1 instead.
However (obviously), if the Chiefs or Lions get upset, that would respectfully give the Rams or Bills a home playoff game on championship weekend and your chances would go down significantly. In those cases, the Bills would be -405 to win and the Rams would be -142 to win. You’d probably be looking at something in the range of 15-1 for the full four-game parlay eventually. So if you like this one and think there might be an upset in the other two games, you’re probably better off taking the 37-1 now. You would also have an out with potential covers on the Houston or Washington moneylines.
Another tip for those in the modern gaming world: split your stake into two smaller bets! That way, if you get a Bills vs. Rams result this weekend, you’ll have the option to cash out one bet and let the other half roll, if you want. This is a good method to use for golf etc., futures as well as when you have longer odds and bigger numbers in full tournaments.
Here’s to the best bets for this weekend, one on every game (sort of) with all odds courtesy of FanDuel.
2025 NFL Divisional Round Viewer’s Guide Rankings: Ravens-Bills, a heavyweight clash, where to watch the games
Tyler Sullivan
Best NFL Divisional Round Bets
Teaser: Chiefs (-2.5) against Texans and Bills (+7.5) against Ravens
The really smart move here if you were all over the front lines was to put a six-point teaser on the Ravens and Chiefs when this game opened with the Bills favored by 1.5, then put another teaser on the Bills and the Chiefs once the game is over. The line moved to zero to make the Ravens a 1.5-point favorite. You would need the Chiefs to essentially win (even if they have to win by three obviously), then the Ravens and Bills game stays at seven points and you win both bets. This is extremely likely! The ship has probably sailed for this – I don’t see the Bills becoming more than a point favorite again, barring injury – but it’s also possible this game ends in a pick as well, so insert that teaser. now it feels good. Baltimore is awesome. This could take a lead over Buffalo and beat Derrick Henry en route to a dominant victory. But you saw what the Ravens did with Pittsburgh in the second half – I don’t think they can hold off Buffalo and Josh Allen that long. Allen will play with his legs and Sean McDermott will put something together to slow down the Ravens offense, especially if Zay Flowers is out there.
Parlay: Derrick Henry ATD (-201) and Josh Allen ATD (+105)
As I mentioned, Henry is going to get his. The Ravens love to feed the Big Dog, he has been unstoppable most of the season, recovering the rock near the goal line and against a Bills team that is more vulnerable to the run than the pass. I think he’ll find a way to score. Vegas too, as he is -201 for a touchdown at any time. We can’t bet this, but we can add a Josh Allen touchdown at any time to the mix instead at +105 to make it a nice and juicy 2-1 parlay. Allen didn’t score in last week’s emphatic win over the Broncos, but he didn’t need to use his legs near the goal line, with James Cook running wild. I think the bills will prefer use Cook’s legs if they can, but that’s another beast. This is a very good Ravens team favored in Buffalo. Allen ran again last week but not near the goal line; Joe Brady saved these games for this week and hopefully next week at Arrowhead, knowing they will need every point they can get. Plus, we saw Allen sneak up big time again against Denver. The playoffs are when he runs. That’s a pretty steep price for the two most likely touchdown scorers.
Sam LaPorta on 4.5 receptions (-120)
The usage is pretty clear here for the Lions offense and their second-year star tight end. He hasn’t been the volume player most of the regular season that people expected, with Jameson Williams coming on strong for Detroit and absorbing a ton of targets. Jamo still gets his and has been used a lot more around the line of scrimmage, but the result hasn’t been that LaPorta keeps getting picked off, rather he’s more likely to be open as a result. Additionally, over time we saw Ben Johnson and Jared Goff really use LaPorta as the weather got colder, the games became more meaningful, and he was fully healthy. LaPorta’s last five games tell a different story than his early season: He had 29 catches on 39 targets during that span for 335 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a pace of 97 catches/1,139 yards through 17 games, which would be truly elite stuff for any tight end. LaPorta only needs five catches here, a number he’s made in four of these five games. I think he comes in here against a Commanders team that has a good defense but can definitely be vulnerable against the pass and in the middle of the field. They’ve allowed an average of four catches per game to tight ends this season, including some decent games against Luke Schoonmaker, Foster Moreau and Kyle Pitts – all of whom scored – in the final month of the season. It’s LaPorta Potty SZN.
Kyren Williams on 12.5 receiving yards (-110)
The usage will be there for Williams, who now has no competition in the Rams backfield after Blake Corum suffered a broken forearm. He had 19 touches in a blowout Rams win where the Los Angeles defense scored a touchdown (both reduce the number of opportunities for starters in theory). Williams played on 87 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps during their domination of Minnesota, so it’s a safe bet he could be even higher in a game where the Rams are heavy underdogs. Additionally, he achieved that number against a good Minnesota run defense last week while being used as a passer, getting three targets from Matthew Stafford and securing all three for 16 yards. I think we can do this in several ways. If the Rams have success early against a strong Philly run defense, Williams will be involved in some capacity. And if the Rams are behind, you better believe Williams will see targets as Philly starts to come home with the pass rush and Stafford needs easier looks. There is a world where he is forced to stay and block, but even then we should have screens or quick hitters when he chips and releases. Honestly, a first detection could erase this figure.
